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VEN LLLLL
NAP LLWDW
Last 5 league results · 0% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Venezia FC vs Napoli
0
Venezia FC wins
1
Draws
3
Napoli wins
From 4 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.09 vs 2.31
Venezia FCNapoli
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Pierluigi Penzo, Venice
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Venezia FC
1 2
Napoli
Model's most likely score · 9.7% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
63.6%
High
ScorelineProbability
Venezia FC 1-2 Napoli 9.7%
Venezia FC 1-1 Napoli 9.3%
Venezia FC 0-2 Napoli 8.9%
Venezia FC 1-3 Napoli 7.5%
Venezia FC 0-1 Napoli 6.9%

In brief

Bottom side Venezia FC host eighth-placed Napoli. Venezia FC arrive in poor form and Napoli in mixed form, and Venezia FC have lost their last five. Venezia FC have lost every home game this season and Napoli have won one of their three away games. Venezia FC are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and have one of the league's leakiest defences. Napoli have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Napoli favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Napoli a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Venezia FC vs Napoli
Attack strength
0.78 / 1.08
Defence strength
0.71 / 1.03
Head-to-head
0.90 / 1.10
Injury factor
1.01 / 0.98
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Venezia FC win16%
Draw20%
Napoli win64%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Venezia FC LOWER
Model15.8%
Market20.6%
Difference -4.8 points
Draw LOWER
Model20.5%
Market24.0%
Difference -3.5 points
Napoli HIGHER
Model63.6%
Market55.4%
Difference +8.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
5.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.69 HIGHER
Model65.9%
Market56.4%
Difference +9.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.19 LOWER
Model34.0%
Market43.6%
Difference -9.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
B. FranjicVeneziaShoulder Injury
A. AdoranteVeneziaInguinal Hernia
A. Bella-KotchapVeneziaThigh Injury
G. BusioVeneziaThigh Injury
M. ŠverkoVeneziaHip Injury
P. MazzocchiVeneziaInjury
L. MarianucciNapoliOff the roster
A. BuongiornoNapoliJumpers Knee
Alisson SantosNapoliMuscle Injury
F. AnguissaNapoliGroin Injury
C. FavasuliNapoliThigh Injury
M. OliveraNapoliGroin Injury
A. VergaraNapoliCalf Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results