Smart stats. Bet better.

Every matchweek, Edge Eleven pulls the latest Premier League fixtures, results, head-to-head records and injury reports, then runs them through a Poisson-based scoring model (a standard way of turning goal-scoring rates into match probabilities) to generate a home/draw/away probability and a predicted scoreline for each match.

Where bookmaker odds are available, we line the model's numbers up against the market to flag where the two disagree — that gap is what "value" means on this site.

Predictions are locked in before kickoff and never edited afterwards, win or lose. The Track Record page shows how every one of them actually landed, and the Acca page tracks each week's accumulators the same way — locked before kickoff, then settled win or lose.

Edge Eleven is a personal stats project, not a licensed tipster service. Nothing here is betting advice — it's a model's best guess, and models are wrong plenty of the time. Please gamble responsibly and never stake more than you can afford to lose.