Udinese Calcio vs US Lecce prediction

Recent form

UDI DWLLL

USL LLWLL

Last 5 league results · 27% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Udinese vs

Lecce

Udinese wins

Draws

Lecce wins

From 15 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.60 vs 1.09

UdineseLecce

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udine
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Udinese

1 1

Lecce

Model's most likely score · 13.0% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 11:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

47.8%

Medium

Scoreline	Probability
Udinese 1-1 Lecce	13.0%
Udinese 1-0 Lecce	9.6%
Udinese 2-1 Lecce	9.5%
Udinese 2-0 Lecce	8.6%
Udinese 0-0 Lecce	8.0%

In brief

Fifteenth-placed Udinese host thirteenth-placed Lecce. Both sides arrive in poor form, and Udinese have lost their last three. Udinese are still looking for a first home win and Lecce have won one of their three away games. Udinese have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Udinese slight favourites. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Udinese vs

Lecce

Attack strength

0.90 / 0.83

Defence strength

1.00 / 0.94

Head-to-head

1.07 / 0.93

Injury factor

0.98 / 1.01

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Udinese win48%

Draw27%

Lecce win25%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.2%

Overround

Udinese —

Model47.8%

Market50.2%

Difference -2.4 points

Draw —

Model27.3%

Market27.0%

Difference +0.3 points

Lecce —

Model24.9%

Market22.8%

Difference +2.1 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

4.9%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.0 —

Model50.4%

Market47.7%

Difference +2.7 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.82 —

Model49.6%

Market52.3%

Difference -2.7 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
N. Zaniolo	Udinese	Thigh Injury
J. Piotrowski	Udinese	Heart Problems
I. Gueye	Udinese	Ankle Injury
M. Berisha	Lecce	Lacking Match Fitness
N. Stulic	Lecce	Muscle Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results