Torino vs Udinese Calcio prediction

Recent form

TOR LLWLD

UDI DWLLL

Last 5 league results · 27% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Torino vs

Udinese

Torino wins

Draws

Udinese wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.69 vs 1.56

TorinoUdinese

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin
Referee	Valerio Crezzini
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Torino

2 2

Udinese

Model's expected scoreline · 6.7% probability of this exact score

LOCKED 23h 44m before kickoff · 11 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · Serie A record #10 45be1b60e9

Outcome certainty

40.1%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
Torino 1-1 Udinese	11.3%
Torino 2-1 Udinese	8.6%
Torino 1-2 Udinese	8.0%
Torino 2-2 Udinese	6.7%
Torino 2-0 Udinese	5.5%

In brief

Fifteenth-placed Torino host fourteenth-placed Udinese. Both sides arrive in poor form, and Udinese have lost their last three. Torino have lost every home game this season and Udinese have won one of their two away games. Torino have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Udinese a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Torino vs

Udinese

Attack strength

0.88 / 1.04

Defence strength

0.88 / 0.86

Head-to-head

1.03 / 0.97

Injury factor

1.01 / 0.98

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Torino win40%

Draw25%

Udinese win35%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

5.3%

Overround

Torino —

Model40.1%

Market40.4%

Difference -0.2 points

Draw LOWER

Model25.2%

Market29.8%

Difference -4.6 points

Udinese HIGHER

Model34.6%

Market29.8%

Difference +4.8 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

4.7%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.13 HIGHER

Model63.0%

Market44.9%

Difference +18.1 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.73 LOWER

Model37.0%

Market55.1%

Difference -18.1 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
F. Israel	Torino	Shoulder Injury
C. Casadei	Torino	Rest
P. Pellegri	Torino	Jumpers Knee
C. Adams	Torino	Muscle Injury
N. Zaniolo	Udinese	Thigh Injury
J. Piotrowski	Udinese	Heart Problems
J. Arizala	Udinese	Thigh Injury
M. Palma	Udinese	Muscle Injury
I. Gueye	Udinese	Ankle Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results