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Recent form

SAS LWDWL
MIL WWDDW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 73% of points taken

Head to head

Sassuolo vs Milan
5
Sassuolo wins
5
Draws
10
Milan wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.28 vs 1.77
SassuoloMilan
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia
Referee Francesco Fourneau
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Sassuolo
1 1
Milan
We predicted 1-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 58m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 17:01 BST · Serie A record #7 c05af35e85
Outcome certainty
47.9%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Sassuolo 1-1 Milan 11.8%
Sassuolo 1-2 Milan 9.5%
Sassuolo 0-2 Milan 7.5%
Sassuolo 0-1 Milan 7.4%
Sassuolo 2-1 Milan 6.9%

In brief

Final score: Sassuolo 1-1 Milan. Tenth-placed Sassuolo hosted fifth-placed Milan. Sassuolo arrived in mixed form and Milan in good form. Sassuolo had won every home game this season and Milan were unbeaten away from home. Milan were one of the league's highest-scoring sides. Milan had much the better of their earlier meetings. Sassuolo had the longer injury list. The model made Milan slight favourites. The model gave Sassuolo a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Sassuolo vs Milan
Attack strength
1.09 / 1.05
Defence strength
0.97 / 1.12
Head-to-head
0.95 / 1.04
Injury factor
0.90 / 1.10
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Sassuolo win27%
Draw25%
Milan win48%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.5%
Overround
Sassuolo HIGHER
Model26.6%
Market22.4%
Difference +4.2 points
Draw —
Model25.5%
Market25.6%
Difference -0.1 points
Milan LOWER
Model47.9%
Market52.0%
Difference -4.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.77 HIGHER
Model58.6%
Market54.1%
Difference +4.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.08 LOWER
Model41.3%
Market45.9%
Difference -4.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
I. KonéSassuoloBroken Leg
C. VolpatoSassuoloThigh Injury
E. PieragnoloSassuoloJumpers Knee
S. WalukiewiczSassuoloMuscle Injury
Fali CandéSassuoloJumpers Knee
D. BolocaSassuoloMuscle Bruise
Y. PazSassuoloJumpers Knee
J. IdzesSassuoloMuscle Injury
A. SaelemaekersAC MilanAnkle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results