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Recent form

ROM WWWDD
GEN LLDLW
Last 5 league results · 73% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Roma vs Genoa
13
Roma wins
5
Draws
2
Genoa wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.24 vs 0.81
RomaGenoa
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Olimpico, Rome
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Roma
2 0
Genoa
Model's most likely score · 11.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
68.8%
High
ScorelineProbability
Roma 2-0 Genoa 11.9%
Roma 1-0 Genoa 9.8%
Roma 2-1 Genoa 9.6%
Roma 1-1 Genoa 9.5%
Roma 3-0 Genoa 8.9%

In brief

Third-placed Roma host seventeenth-placed Genoa. Roma arrive in good form and Genoa in poor form. Roma are unbeaten at home and Genoa have lost every away game this season. Roma are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have conceded the fewest goals in the league; Genoa are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Roma have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Roma clear favourites. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Roma vs Genoa
Attack strength
1.31 / 0.79
Defence strength
1.23 / 1.02
Head-to-head
1.07 / 0.93
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Roma win69%
Draw20%
Genoa win11%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Roma —
Model68.8%
Market69.2%
Difference -0.3 points
Draw —
Model19.9%
Market19.2%
Difference +0.6 points
Genoa —
Model11.2%
Market11.6%
Difference -0.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.66 —
Model58.7%
Market56.8%
Difference +1.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.19 —
Model41.3%
Market43.2%
Difference -1.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. BahAS RomaJumpers Knee
B. CristanteAS RomaInjury
K. KoulierakisAS RomaKnock
M. SvilarAS RomaToe Injury
E. HavelGenoaAnkle Injury
L. VenturinoGenoaJumpers Knee
AmorimGenoaInactive
L. ColomboGenoaAnkle Injury
F. MeichtryGenoaMuscle Injury
D. SowGenoaInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results