Parma Calcio 1913 vs Torino prediction

Recent form

PAR LDLWL

TOR LLWLD

Last 5 league results · 27% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Parma vs

Torino

Parma wins

Draws

Torino wins

From 16 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.25 vs 1.16

ParmaTorino

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Parma

1 1

Torino

Model's most likely score · 14.3% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 18 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

37.0%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
Parma 1-1 Torino	14.3%
Parma 0-0 Torino	10.2%
Parma 1-0 Torino	9.9%
Parma 0-1 Torino	9.1%
Parma 2-1 Torino	8.1%

In brief

Eighteenth-placed Parma host twelfth-placed Torino. Both sides arrive in poor form. Parma have won one of their three home games and Torino have won one of their three away games. Parma are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Parma a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Parma vs

Torino

Attack strength

0.73 / 0.87

Defence strength

1.04 / 0.93

Head-to-head

1.00 / 1.00

Injury factor

1.00 / 1.00

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Parma win37%

Draw30%

Torino win33%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.0%

Overround

Parma HIGHER

Model37.0%

Market30.9%

Difference +6.1 points

Draw —

Model30.1%

Market30.8%

Difference -0.7 points

Torino LOWER

Model32.8%

Market38.3%

Difference -5.5 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

4.7%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.4 HIGHER

Model43.5%

Market39.9%

Difference +3.6 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.59 LOWER

Model56.5%

Market60.1%

Difference -3.6 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
L. Valenti	Parma	Coach's decision
H. Nicolussi Caviglia	Parma	Groin Injury
P. Almqvist	Parma	Calf Injury
A. Ndiaye	Parma	Knock
F. Israel	Torino	Shoulder Injury
C. Casadei	Torino	Rest
P. Pellegri	Torino	Jumpers Knee
N. Fortini	Torino	Hernia

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results