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Recent form

NAP WLLWD
FRO LWWDW
Last 5 league results · 47% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Napoli vs Frosinone
5
Napoli wins
1
Draws
1
Frosinone wins
From 7 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.03 vs 1.09
NapoliFrosinone
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMaradona Stadium, Naples
Referee Ermanno Feliciani
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Napoli
3 0
Frosinone
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 44m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 20:00 BST · Serie A record #3 d93c978556
Outcome certainty
58.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Napoli 1-1 Frosinone 10.8%
Napoli 2-1 Frosinone 9.9%
Napoli 2-0 Frosinone 9.1%
Napoli 1-0 Frosinone 8.0%
Napoli 3-1 Frosinone 6.7%

In brief

Final score: Napoli 3-0 Frosinone. Ninth-placed Napoli hosted sixth-placed Frosinone. Napoli arrived in mixed form and Frosinone in good form. Napoli had won one of their two home games and Frosinone were unbeaten away from home. Napoli had much the better of their earlier meetings. Napoli had the longer injury list. The model made Napoli favourites. The bookmakers gave Napoli a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Napoli vs Frosinone
Attack strength
1.06 / 0.90
Defence strength
1.08 / 0.85
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
0.93 / 1.07
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Napoli win58%
Draw23%
Frosinone win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.6%
Overround
Napoli LOWER
Model58.1%
Market65.4%
Difference -7.3 points
Draw HIGHER
Model23.1%
Market19.8%
Difference +3.3 points
Frosinone HIGHER
Model18.8%
Market14.8%
Difference +4.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.48 LOWER
Model60.2%
Market63.3%
Difference -3.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.56 HIGHER
Model39.7%
Market36.7%
Difference +3.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
GiovaneNapoliGroin Injury
A. BuongiornoNapoliJumpers Knee
Alisson SantosNapoliMuscle Injury
A. MeretNapoliMuscle Injury
F. AnguissaNapoliGroin Injury
C. FavasuliNapoliThigh Injury
M. OliveraNapoliGroin Injury
A. VergaraNapoliCalf Injury
F. GrillitschFrosinoneThigh Injury
D. BirligeaFrosinoneMuscle Injury
A. RaimondoFrosinoneHealth problems
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results