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Recent form

MON LDLWL
CAG LWWWD
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Monza vs Cagliari
1
Monza wins
1
Draws
2
Cagliari wins
From 4 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.42 vs 1.47
MonzaCagliari
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMonza
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Monza
1 1
Cagliari
Model's most likely score · 12.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 18 Oct, 17:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
37.3%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Monza 1-1 Cagliari 12.8%
Monza 1-2 Cagliari 8.5%
Monza 2-1 Cagliari 8.3%
Monza 0-1 Cagliari 7.0%
Monza 1-0 Cagliari 6.8%

In brief

Sixteenth-placed Monza host fourth-placed Cagliari. Monza arrive in poor form and Cagliari in good form, and Cagliari drew their last game after winning the three before it. Monza have won one of their two home games and Cagliari have won every away game this season. Monza have one of the league's leakiest defences; Cagliari have one of the league's tightest defences. Cagliari have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Cagliari a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Monza vs Cagliari
Attack strength
0.97 / 0.90
Defence strength
0.91 / 1.01
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.06
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Monza win36%
Draw27%
Cagliari win37%

Odds comparison — 1x2

9
Bookmakers
9
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Monza LOWER
Model35.5%
Market40.8%
Difference -5.2 points
Draw —
Model27.1%
Market30.0%
Difference -2.9 points
Cagliari HIGHER
Model37.3%
Market29.3%
Difference +8.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.08 HIGHER
Model55.2%
Market45.9%
Difference +9.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.77 LOWER
Model44.8%
Market54.1%
Difference -9.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
I. ToureMonzaContusion
J. ZiolkowskiMonzaFoot Injury
M. PessinaMonzaKnee Injury
Y. TrepyCagliariInjury
Riyad IdrissiCagliariJumpers Knee
M. FeliciCagliariKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results