AC Milan vs Atalanta BC prediction

Recent form

MIL WDDWD

ATA WLLLW

Last 5 league results · 60% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Milan vs

Atalanta

Milan wins

Draws

Atalanta wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.80 vs 1.10

MilanAtalanta

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Milan
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Milan

1 1

Atalanta

Model's most likely score · 12.0% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 17:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

52.8%

Medium

Scoreline	Probability
Milan 1-1 Atalanta	12.0%
Milan 2-1 Atalanta	9.8%
Milan 2-0 Atalanta	9.0%
Milan 1-0 Atalanta	8.9%
Milan 0-0 Atalanta	6.6%

In brief

Fifth-placed Milan host tenth-placed Atalanta. Milan arrive in good form and Atalanta in mixed form, and Atalanta won their last game after losing the three before it. Milan have won every home game this season and Atalanta have lost every away game this season. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Milan favourites. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Milan vs

Atalanta

Attack strength

1.04 / 0.91

Defence strength

1.16 / 0.92

Head-to-head

0.97 / 1.03

Injury factor

1.03 / 0.97

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Milan win53%

Draw25%

Atalanta win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.0%

Overround

Milan —

Model52.8%

Market50.8%

Difference +2.0 points

Draw —

Model25.3%

Market26.0%

Difference -0.6 points

Atalanta —

Model21.9%

Market23.3%

Difference -1.3 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

5.1%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.78 —

Model55.3%

Market53.4%

Difference +1.9 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.04 —

Model44.7%

Market46.6%

Difference -1.9 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
A. Saelemaekers	AC Milan	Ankle Injury
K. Sulemana	Atalanta	Jumpers Knee
I. Hien	Atalanta	Muscle Bruise
O. Kossounou	Atalanta	Thigh Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results