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Recent form

USL WLLWL
BOL LLDLD
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 13% of points taken

Head to head

Lecce vs Bologna
1
Lecce wins
4
Draws
9
Bologna wins
From 14 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.94 vs 1.79
LecceBologna
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Referee Luca J. Pairetto
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Lecce
1 2
Bologna
We predicted 1-2 EXACT SCORE
LOCKED 23h 58m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 14:01 BST · Serie A record #5 7c9a032cc8
Outcome certainty
56.3%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Lecce 1-1 Bologna 12.1%
Lecce 0-1 Bologna 10.6%
Lecce 0-2 Bologna 10.5%
Lecce 1-2 Bologna 9.8%
Lecce 0-0 Bologna 7.6%

In brief

Final score: Lecce 1-2 Bologna. Twelfth-placed Lecce hosted eighteenth-placed Bologna. Lecce arrived in mixed form and Bologna in poor form. Lecce had won one of their two home games and Bologna had lost every away game this season. Bologna were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Bologna had much the better of their earlier meetings. Bologna had the longer injury list. The model made Bologna favourites. The model gave Bologna a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Lecce vs Bologna
Attack strength
0.76 / 0.95
Defence strength
0.79 / 1.18
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
1.04 / 0.95
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Lecce win18%
Draw25%
Bologna win56%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.4%
Overround
Lecce LOWER
Model18.4%
Market22.2%
Difference -3.8 points
Draw LOWER
Model25.3%
Market28.5%
Difference -3.2 points
Bologna HIGHER
Model56.3%
Market49.2%
Difference +7.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.11 HIGHER
Model51.3%
Market45.2%
Difference +6.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.74 LOWER
Model48.7%
Market54.8%
Difference -6.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. BerishaLecceLacking Match Fitness
A. DovbykBolognaMuscle Injury
E. HolmBolognaThigh Injury
J. OdgaardBolognaThigh Injury
S. MbangulaBolognaInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results