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Recent form

LAZ WWWDW
MON LLDLW
Last 5 league results · 87% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Lazio vs Monza
4
Lazio wins
2
Draws
0
Monza wins
From 6 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.83 vs 1.10
LazioMonza
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Olimpico, Rome
Referee Guiseppe Collu
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Lazio
3 1
Monza
We predicted 2-1 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 58m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 14:01 BST · Serie A record #6 68d822fa2f
Outcome certainty
53.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Lazio 1-1 Monza 11.8%
Lazio 2-1 Monza 9.8%
Lazio 2-0 Monza 8.9%
Lazio 1-0 Monza 8.7%
Lazio 0-0 Monza 6.4%

In brief

Final score: Lazio 3-1 Monza. Third-placed Lazio hosted sixteenth-placed Monza. Lazio arrived in excellent form and Monza in poor form. Lazio were unbeaten at home and Monza were still looking for a first away win. Lazio had one of the league's tightest defences; Monza had one of the league's leakiest defences. Lazio had much the better of their earlier meetings. Lazio had the longer injury list. The model made Lazio favourites. The bookmakers gave Lazio a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Lazio vs Monza
Attack strength
1.05 / 0.93
Defence strength
1.10 / 0.94
Head-to-head
1.13 / 0.87
Injury factor
0.94 / 1.06
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Lazio win53%
Draw25%
Monza win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.6%
Overround
Lazio LOWER
Model53.2%
Market58.6%
Difference -5.4 points
Draw —
Model25.1%
Market24.0%
Difference +1.1 points
Monza HIGHER
Model21.7%
Market17.4%
Difference +4.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.88 HIGHER
Model56.0%
Market50.8%
Difference +5.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.94 LOWER
Model43.9%
Market49.2%
Difference -5.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
D. CataldiLazioGroin Injury
N. RovellaLazioCalf Injury
L. PellegriniLazioInactive
A. MarusicLazioMuscle Injury
PatricLazioSprained Ankle
A. FurlanettoLazioJumpers Knee
A. GudmundssonLazioShoulder Injury
I. ToureMonzaContusion
J. ZiolkowskiMonzaFoot Injury
M. PessinaMonzaKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results