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JUV WDLWD
LAZ WWDWW
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 87% of points taken

Head to head

Juventus vs Lazio
10
Juventus wins
4
Draws
6
Lazio wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.50 vs 0.82
JuventusLazio
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAllianz Stadium, Turin
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Juventus
1 0
Lazio
Model's most likely score · 13.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
52.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Juventus 1-0 Lazio 13.6%
Juventus 1-1 Lazio 13.3%
Juventus 2-0 Lazio 11.1%
Juventus 0-0 Lazio 11.0%
Juventus 2-1 Lazio 9.1%

In brief

Sixth-placed Juventus host second-placed Lazio. Juventus arrive in mixed form and Lazio in excellent form. Juventus are unbeaten at home and Lazio have won every away game this season. Lazio are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have one of the league's tightest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Juventus favourites. The bookmakers give Juventus a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Juventus vs Lazio
Attack strength
1.11 / 0.91
Defence strength
1.49 / 1.22
Head-to-head
1.04 / 0.95
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Juventus win52%
Draw29%
Lazio win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Juventus LOWER
Model52.2%
Market57.2%
Difference -5.0 points
Draw HIGHER
Model28.6%
Market24.7%
Difference +3.9 points
Lazio —
Model19.2%
Market18.1%
Difference +1.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.94 LOWER
Model40.9%
Market49.3%
Difference -8.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.88 HIGHER
Model59.1%
Market50.7%
Difference +8.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. EkhatorJuventusMuscle Injury
A. MilikJuventusInactive
K. YildizJuventusFoot Injury
K. ThuramJuventusKnee Injury
M. LocatelliJuventusKnee Injury
J. BogaJuventusMuscle Injury
K. GrabaraJuventusKnee Injury
N. RovellaLazioCalf Injury
L. PellegriniLazioInactive
A. MarusicLazioMuscle Injury
PatricLazioSprained Ankle
A. FurlanettoLazioJumpers Knee
M. CancellieriLazioLeg Injury
A. GudmundssonLazioShoulder Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results