FC Internazionale Milano vs Parma Calcio 1913 prediction

Recent form

INT WWWWD

PAR LLDLW

Last 5 league results · 87% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Inter vs

Parma

Inter wins

Draws

Parma wins

From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.71 vs 0.83

InterParma

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
Referee	Kevin Bonacina
Status	Full time

Result

Full time

The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.

Inter

3 0

Parma

We predicted 3-1 CORRECT RESULT

LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 17:00 BST · Serie A record #2 61bdb6e992

Outcome certainty

76.2%

High

Scoreline	Probability
Inter 2-0 Parma	10.7%
Inter 3-0 Parma	9.7%
Inter 2-1 Parma	8.8%
Inter 3-1 Parma	8.0%
Inter 1-0 Parma	7.2%

In brief

Final score: Inter 3-0 Parma. Second-placed Inter hosted fifteenth-placed Parma. Inter arrived in excellent form and Parma in poor form, and Inter had drawn their last game after winning the four before it. Inter had won every home game this season and Parma had lost every away game this season. Inter were the league's top scorers. Inter had much the better of their earlier meetings. Parma had the longer injury list. The model made Inter clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The bookmakers gave Inter a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Inter vs

Parma

Attack strength

1.60 / 0.67

Defence strength

1.02 / 1.01

Head-to-head

1.07 / 0.93

Injury factor

1.04 / 0.95

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Inter win76%

Draw15%

Parma win8%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

5.2%

Overround

Inter LOWER

Model76.2%

Market83.3%

Difference -7.2 points

Draw HIGHER

Model15.4%

Market11.1%

Difference +4.4 points

Parma —

Model8.2%

Market5.6%

Difference +2.6 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

6.9%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.34 —

Model68.4%

Market69.9%

Difference -1.5 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.11 —

Model31.4%

Market30.1%

Difference +1.3 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
J. Stones	Inter	Injury
C. Jones	Inter	Thigh Injury
A. Bernabe	Parma	Thigh Injury
H. Nicolussi Caviglia	Parma	Groin Injury
P. Almqvist	Parma	Calf Injury
D. Drobnic	Parma	Arm Injury
M. Frigan	Parma	Injury

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results