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Recent form

GEN LLLDL
FIO LLLWD
Last 5 league results · 7% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Genoa vs Fiorentina
2
Genoa wins
11
Draws
7
Fiorentina wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.28 vs 1.79
GenoaFiorentina
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueLuigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee Fabio Maresca
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Genoa
2 1
Fiorentina
We predicted 1-2 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 23h 59m before kickoff · 09 Oct 2026, 14:00 BST · Serie A record #1 e732adab87
Outcome certainty
48.4%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Genoa 1-1 Fiorentina 11.7%
Genoa 1-2 Fiorentina 9.5%
Genoa 0-2 Fiorentina 7.5%
Genoa 0-1 Fiorentina 7.3%
Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina 6.8%

In brief

Final score: Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina. Nineteenth-placed Genoa hosted seventeenth-placed Fiorentina. Both sides arrived in poor form. Genoa were still looking for a first home win and Fiorentina had won one of their two away games. Genoa were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Fiorentina had one of the league's leakiest defences. Fiorentina had much the better of their earlier meetings. Genoa had the longer injury list. The model made Fiorentina slight favourites. The model gave Fiorentina a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Genoa vs Fiorentina
Attack strength
0.86 / 1.01
Defence strength
0.90 / 0.93
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.06
Injury factor
0.95 / 1.04
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Genoa win26%
Draw25%
Fiorentina win48%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.6%
Overround
Genoa LOWER
Model26.3%
Market29.8%
Difference -3.6 points
Draw LOWER
Model25.3%
Market29.0%
Difference -3.7 points
Fiorentina HIGHER
Model48.4%
Market41.1%
Difference +7.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.05 HIGHER
Model59.1%
Market46.6%
Difference +12.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.79 LOWER
Model40.9%
Market53.4%
Difference -12.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. HavelGenoaAnkle Injury
L. VenturinoGenoaJumpers Knee
L. ColomboGenoaAnkle Injury
F. MeichtryGenoaMuscle Injury
D. SowGenoaInjury
R. SottilFiorentinaBack Injury
F. ParisiFiorentinaKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results