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Recent form

FRO WWDWL
SAS WDWLD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Frosinone vs Sassuolo
2
Frosinone wins
3
Draws
4
Sassuolo wins
From 9 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.36 vs 1.81
FrosinoneSassuolo
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Frosinone
1 1
Sassuolo
Model's most likely score · 11.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 15 Oct, 19:45 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
46.9%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Frosinone 1-1 Sassuolo 11.4%
Frosinone 1-2 Sassuolo 9.3%
Frosinone 2-1 Sassuolo 7.1%
Frosinone 0-2 Sassuolo 6.8%
Frosinone 0-1 Sassuolo 6.5%

In brief

Ninth-placed Frosinone host eleventh-placed Sassuolo. Frosinone arrive in good form and Sassuolo in mixed form. Frosinone have won two of their three home games and Sassuolo are still looking for a first away win. Sassuolo have had much the better of their past meetings. Sassuolo have the longer injury list. The model makes Sassuolo slight favourites. The model gives Sassuolo a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Frosinone vs Sassuolo
Attack strength
0.84 / 1.08
Defence strength
0.80 / 1.01
Head-to-head
0.98 / 1.02
Injury factor
1.06 / 0.94
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Frosinone win28%
Draw25%
Sassuolo win47%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Frosinone LOWER
Model28.1%
Market38.7%
Difference -10.6 points
Draw —
Model25.0%
Market26.3%
Difference -1.3 points
Sassuolo HIGHER
Model46.9%
Market35.1%
Difference +11.8 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.48 —
Model61.4%
Market63.3%
Difference -1.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.55 —
Model38.6%
Market36.7%
Difference +1.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
D. BirligeaFrosinoneMuscle Injury
F. GrillitschFrosinoneThigh Injury
I. KonéSassuoloBroken Leg
E. PieragnoloSassuoloJumpers Knee
Fali CandéSassuoloJumpers Knee
D. BolocaSassuoloMuscle Bruise
Y. PazSassuoloJumpers Knee
J. IdzesSassuoloMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results