ACF Fiorentina vs Como 1907 prediction

Recent form

FIO LLWDL

COM WWWLD

Last 5 league results · 27% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Fiorentina vs

Como 1907

Fiorentina wins

Draws

Como 1907 wins

From 5 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.32 vs 1.52

FiorentinaComo 1907

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Status	Not started

Prediction

Predicted score

Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.

Fiorentina

1 1

Como 1907

Model's most likely score · 12.9% probability of this exact score

PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.

Outcome certainty

40.9%

Low

Scoreline	Probability
Fiorentina 1-1 Como 1907	12.9%
Fiorentina 1-2 Como 1907	8.9%
Fiorentina 2-1 Como 1907	7.7%
Fiorentina 0-1 Como 1907	7.7%
Fiorentina 0-0 Como 1907	7.0%

In brief

Nineteenth-placed Fiorentina host seventh-placed Como 1907. Fiorentina arrive in poor form and Como 1907 in good form. Fiorentina are still looking for a first home win and Como 1907 have won two of their four away games. Fiorentina have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Como 1907 have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides. The bookmakers give Como 1907 a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Fiorentina vs

Como 1907

Attack strength

0.93 / 1.16

Defence strength

1.04 / 1.13

Head-to-head

0.96 / 1.04

Injury factor

1.06 / 0.94

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Fiorentina win32%

Draw27%

Como 1907 win41%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.0%

Overround

Fiorentina HIGHER

Model31.8%

Market27.7%

Difference +4.1 points

Draw —

Model27.3%

Market26.0%

Difference +1.3 points

Como 1907 LOWER

Model40.9%

Market46.3%

Difference -5.4 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

5.1%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.66 LOWER

Model54.0%

Market57.2%

Difference -3.1 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.22 HIGHER

Model46.0%

Market42.8%

Difference +3.1 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
R. Sottil	Fiorentina	Back Injury
F. Parisi	Fiorentina	Knee Injury
A. Atta	Fiorentina	Abdominal strain
J. Addai	Como	Off the roster
M. Kean	Como	Leg Injury
M. Caqueret	Como	Off the roster
E. Goldaniga	Como	Off the roster
W. Kambwala	Como	Off the roster
A. Lahdo	Como	Off the roster
M. Vigorito	Como	Off the roster

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results