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Recent form

COM DWWWL
ROM WWWWD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 87% of points taken

Head to head

Como 1907 vs Roma
2
Como 1907 wins
0
Draws
2
Roma wins
From 4 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.58 vs 1.77
Como 1907Roma
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
Referee Michael Fabbri
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Como 1907
0 0
Roma
We predicted 2-2 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 23h 28m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 12:01 BST · Serie A record #4 86091c4ec2
Outcome certainty
41.6%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Como 1907 1-1 Roma 10.8%
Como 1907 1-2 Roma 8.7%
Como 1907 2-1 Roma 7.8%
Como 1907 2-2 Roma 6.9%
Como 1907 0-2 Roma 5.5%

In brief

Final score: Como 1907 0-0 Roma. Eighth-placed Como 1907 hosted leaders Roma. Como 1907 arrived in good form and Roma in excellent form, and Como 1907 had lost their last game after winning the three before it while Roma had drawn their last game after winning the four before it. Roma had won every away game this season. Roma were one of the league's highest-scoring sides and had one of the league's tightest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model saw little between the sides and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Roma a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Como 1907 vs Roma
Attack strength
1.21 / 1.39
Defence strength
1.09 / 1.22
Head-to-head
1.02 / 0.98
Injury factor
1.01 / 0.98
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Como 1907 win34%
Draw25%
Roma win42%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.3%
Overround
Como 1907 LOWER
Model33.7%
Market37.1%
Difference -3.4 points
Draw —
Model24.7%
Market26.7%
Difference -2.0 points
Roma HIGHER
Model41.6%
Market36.2%
Difference +5.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.63 HIGHER
Model65.0%
Market58.6%
Difference +6.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.31 LOWER
Model35.0%
Market41.4%
Difference -6.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
I. SmolcicComoIllness
M. BahAS RomaJumpers Knee
B. CristanteAS RomaInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results