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Recent form

CAG WLWWW
JUV WWDLW
Last 5 league results · 80% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Cagliari vs Juventus
2
Cagliari wins
3
Draws
15
Juventus wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.77 vs 1.65
CagliariJuventus
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueUnipol Domus, Cagliari
Referee Matteo Marcenaro
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Cagliari
1 1
Juventus
We predicted 1-1 EXACT SCORE
LOCKED 23h 43m before kickoff · 10 Oct 2026, 20:01 BST · Serie A record #8 472c191c2d
Outcome certainty
57.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Cagliari 0-1 Juventus 13.5%
Cagliari 1-1 Juventus 12.4%
Cagliari 0-2 Juventus 12.1%
Cagliari 0-0 Juventus 10.0%
Cagliari 1-2 Juventus 9.3%

In brief

Final score: Cagliari 1-1 Juventus. Fourth-placed Cagliari hosted seventh-placed Juventus. Cagliari arrived in excellent form and Juventus in good form, and Cagliari had won their last three. Cagliari had won one of their two home games and Juventus had won one of their two away games. Cagliari had conceded the fewest goals in the league. Juventus had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Juventus favourites. The bookmakers gave Juventus a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Cagliari vs Juventus
Attack strength
0.85 / 1.07
Defence strength
1.01 / 1.51
Head-to-head
0.85 / 1.15
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Cagliari win16%
Draw27%
Juventus win57%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.3%
Overround
Cagliari —
Model16.3%
Market15.2%
Difference +1.1 points
Draw —
Model26.6%
Market24.2%
Difference +2.5 points
Juventus LOWER
Model57.1%
Market60.7%
Difference -3.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.0 LOWER
Model43.6%
Market47.7%
Difference -4.1 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.83 HIGHER
Model56.4%
Market52.3%
Difference +4.1 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
KevinCagliariMuscle Injury
Y. TrepyCagliariInjury
Riyad IdrissiCagliariJumpers Knee
M. FeliciCagliariKnee Injury
A. DeiolaCagliariKnee Injury
J. EkhatorJuventusMuscle Injury
A. MilikJuventusInactive
K. YildizJuventusFoot Injury
K. ThuramJuventusKnee Injury
M. LocatelliJuventusKnee Injury
J. BogaJuventusMuscle Injury
K. GrabaraJuventusKnee Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results