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Recent form

BOL LDLDW
INT WWWDW
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 87% of points taken

Head to head

Bologna vs Inter
6
Bologna wins
5
Draws
9
Inter wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.13 vs 2.37
BolognaInter
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueBologna
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Bologna
1 2
Inter
Model's most likely score · 9.6% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 17:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
64.1%
High
ScorelineProbability
Bologna 1-2 Inter 9.6%
Bologna 1-1 Inter 8.9%
Bologna 0-2 Inter 8.5%
Bologna 1-3 Inter 7.6%
Bologna 0-3 Inter 6.7%

In brief

Fourteenth-placed Bologna host leaders Inter. Bologna arrive in poor form and Inter in excellent form. Bologna are still looking for a first home win and Inter are unbeaten away from home. Inter are the league's top scorers. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Inter favourites and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Inter a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Bologna vs Inter
Attack strength
0.90 / 1.62
Defence strength
1.04 / 1.15
Head-to-head
0.93 / 1.07
Injury factor
0.98 / 1.01
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Bologna win16%
Draw20%
Inter win64%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Bologna —
Model15.8%
Market17.3%
Difference -1.5 points
Draw LOWER
Model20.0%
Market23.1%
Difference -3.1 points
Inter HIGHER
Model64.1%
Market59.7%
Difference +4.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.65 HIGHER
Model67.8%
Market57.7%
Difference +10.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.25 LOWER
Model32.1%
Market42.3%
Difference -10.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. HolmBolognaThigh Injury
S. MbangulaBolognaInjury
J. OdgaardBolognaThigh Injury
C. JonesInterThigh Injury
J. StonesInterInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results