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Recent form

ATA WWLLL
VEN LLLLL
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 0% of points taken

Head to head

Atalanta vs Venezia FC
4
Atalanta wins
1
Draws
0
Venezia FC wins
From 5 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.37 vs 0.85
AtalantaVenezia FC
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueNew Balance Arena, Bergamo
Referee Paride Tremolada
StatusNot started
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Atalanta
2 1
Venezia FC
Model's expected scoreline · 9.5% probability of this exact score
LOCKED 23h 29m before kickoff · 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 BST · Serie A record #9 8c45bba80d
Outcome certainty
70.4%
High
ScorelineProbability
Atalanta 2-0 Venezia FC 11.2%
Atalanta 2-1 Venezia FC 9.5%
Atalanta 3-0 Venezia FC 8.9%
Atalanta 1-1 Venezia FC 8.8%
Atalanta 1-0 Venezia FC 8.7%

In brief

Eleventh-placed Atalanta host bottom side Venezia FC. Atalanta arrive in mixed form and Venezia FC in poor form, and Atalanta have lost their last three while Venezia FC have lost their last five. Atalanta have won two of their three home games and Venezia FC have lost every away game this season. Venezia FC are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and have one of the league's leakiest defences. Atalanta have had much the better of their past meetings. Venezia FC have the longer injury list. The model makes Atalanta clear favourites. The model gives Atalanta a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Atalanta vs Venezia FC
Attack strength
0.89 / 0.82
Defence strength
1.06 / 0.73
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
1.07 / 0.93
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Atalanta win70%
Draw19%
Venezia FC win11%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.5%
Overround
Atalanta HIGHER
Model70.4%
Market60.4%
Difference +9.9 points
Draw LOWER
Model18.7%
Market22.5%
Difference -3.8 points
Venezia FC LOWER
Model10.8%
Market17.1%
Difference -6.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.54 —
Model62.4%
Market61.0%
Difference +1.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.4 —
Model37.5%
Market39.0%
Difference -1.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
K. SulemanaAtalantaJumpers Knee
I. HienAtalantaMuscle Bruise
O. KossounouAtalantaThigh Injury
G. RaspadoriAtalantaThigh Injury
M. DagassoVeneziaInactive
R. HapsVeneziaInjury
B. FranjicVeneziaShoulder Injury
A. AdoranteVeneziaInguinal Hernia
T. BasicVeneziaFoot Injury
A. Bella-KotchapVeneziaThigh Injury
G. BusioVeneziaThigh Injury
M. ŠverkoVeneziaHip Injury
P. MazzocchiVeneziaInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results