Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

GEN LLLDL
FIO LLLWD
Last 5 league results · 7% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina
2
Genoa CFC wins
11
Draws
7
ACF Fiorentina wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.32 vs 1.74
Genoa CFCACF Fiorentina
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Genoa CFC
1 2
ACF Fiorentina
Model's expected scoreline · 9.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
46.3%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Genoa CFC 1-1 ACF Fiorentina 11.9%
Genoa CFC 1-2 ACF Fiorentina 9.4%
Genoa CFC 0-2 ACF Fiorentina 7.1%
Genoa CFC 0-1 ACF Fiorentina 7.1%
Genoa CFC 2-1 ACF Fiorentina 7.1%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina
Attack strength
0.86 / 1.01
Defence strength
0.9 / 0.93
Head-to-head
0.94 / 1.06
Injury factor
0.98 / 1.01
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Genoa CFC win28%
Draw26%
ACF Fiorentina win46%

Odds comparison — 1x2

5
Bookmakers
5
Offering 1x2
5.5%
Overround
Genoa CFC —
Model28.0%
Market30.4%
Difference -2.4 points
Draw —
Model25.6%
Market28.4%
Difference -2.8 points
ACF Fiorentina HIGHER
Model46.3%
Market41.1%
Difference +5.2 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
4
Bookmakers
4.1%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.02 HIGHER
Model58.9%
Market47.5%
Difference +11.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.83 LOWER
Model41.1%
Market52.5%
Difference -11.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
E. HavelGenoaAnkle Injury
L. VenturinoGenoaKnee Injury
J. VasquezGenoaRed Card
F. ParisiFiorentinaKnee Injury
R. SottilFiorentinaBack Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Stadio Luigi Ferraris fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results