Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

COM DWWWL
ROM WWWWD
Last 5 league results · 67% vs 87% of points taken

Head to head

Como 1907 vs AS Roma
2
Como 1907 wins
0
Draws
2
AS Roma wins
From 4 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.58 vs 1.77
Como 1907AS Roma
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Como 1907
2 2
AS Roma
Model's expected scoreline · 6.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 11:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
41.6%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Como 1907 1-1 AS Roma 10.8%
Como 1907 1-2 AS Roma 8.7%
Como 1907 2-1 AS Roma 7.8%
Como 1907 2-2 AS Roma 6.9%
Como 1907 0-2 AS Roma 5.5%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Como 1907 vs AS Roma
Attack strength
1.21 / 1.39
Defence strength
1.09 / 1.22
Head-to-head
1.02 / 0.98
Injury factor
1.01 / 0.98
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Como 1907 win34%
Draw25%
AS Roma win42%

Odds comparison — 1x2

5
Bookmakers
5
Offering 1x2
5.5%
Overround
Como 1907 LOWER
Model33.7%
Market37.2%
Difference -3.5 points
Draw —
Model24.7%
Market27.3%
Difference -2.6 points
AS Roma HIGHER
Model41.6%
Market35.6%
Difference +6.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
4
Bookmakers
4.1%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.81 HIGHER
Model65.0%
Market53.2%
Difference +11.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.05 LOWER
Model35.0%
Market46.8%
Difference -11.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. BahAS RomaKnee Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 11:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 11:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results