Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

USL WLLWL
BOL LLDLD
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 13% of points taken

Head to head

US Lecce vs Bologna FC 1909
1
US Lecce wins
4
Draws
9
Bologna FC 1909 wins
From 14 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.86 vs 1.96
US LecceBologna FC 1909
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueStadio Via del Mare, Lecce
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
US Lecce
1 2
Bologna FC 1909
Model's expected scoreline · 9.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
62.1%
High
ScorelineProbability
US Lecce 0-2 Bologna FC 1909 11.5%
US Lecce 1-1 Bologna FC 1909 11.1%
US Lecce 0-1 Bologna FC 1909 10.7%
US Lecce 1-2 Bologna FC 1909 9.8%
US Lecce 0-3 Bologna FC 1909 7.5%

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
US Lecce vs Bologna FC 1909
Attack strength
0.76 / 0.95
Defence strength
0.79 / 1.18
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
0.95 / 1.04
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

US Lecce win15%
Draw23%
Bologna FC 1909 win62%

Odds comparison — 1x2

5
Bookmakers
5
Offering 1x2
5.1%
Overround
US Lecce LOWER
Model14.7%
Market24.0%
Difference -9.3 points
Draw LOWER
Model23.2%
Market28.7%
Difference -5.6 points
Bologna FC 1909 HIGHER
Model62.1%
Market47.2%
Difference +14.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
4
Bookmakers
4.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.02 HIGHER
Model53.4%
Market47.5%
Difference +5.8 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.83 LOWER
Model46.6%
Market52.5%
Difference -5.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. BerishaLecceLacking Match Fitness
W. GeubbelsLecceAnkle Injury
O. GandelmanLecceInactive
Tiago GabrielLecceInjury
A. DovbykBolognaMuscle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Stadio Via del Mare fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results