Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

TOT L
NEW D
Last 5 league results · 0% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Tottenham vs Newcastle
7
Tottenham wins
5
Draws
8
Newcastle wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.18 vs 0.66
TottenhamNewcastle
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Tottenham
0 2
Newcastle
We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
48.3%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Tottenham 1-0 Newcastle 18.7%
Tottenham 0-0 Newcastle 15.9%
Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle 12.4%
Tottenham 2-0 Newcastle 11.0%
Tottenham 0-1 Newcastle 10.5%

In brief

Final score: Tottenham 0-2 Newcastle. Eighteenth-placed Tottenham hosted eleventh-placed Newcastle. Both sides arrived in poor form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Tottenham slight favourites and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The bookmakers gave Newcastle a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Attack strength
0.80 / 1.07
Defence strength
0.83 / 0.94
Form factor
0.75 / 0.75
Head-to-head
0.98 / 1.01
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Tottenham win48%
Draw31%
Newcastle win21%

Odds comparison — 1x2

61
Bookmakers
61
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Tottenham HIGHER
Model48.3%
Market42.7%
Difference +5.7 points
Draw HIGHER
Model30.9%
Market26.2%
Difference +4.7 points
Newcastle LOWER
Model20.8%
Market31.1%
Difference -10.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
22
Bookmakers
5.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.67 LOWER
Model28.0%
Market56.6%
Difference -28.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.18 HIGHER
Model72.0%
Market43.4%
Difference +28.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
D. KulusevskiTottenhamKnee Injury
W. OdobertTottenhamKnee Injury
X. SimonsTottenhamKnee Injury
J. MaddisonTottenhamKnock
M. MudrykTottenhamAnkle Injury
RicharlisonTottenhamTransfer negotiations
JoelintonNewcastleThigh Injury
D. BurnNewcastleAnkle Injury
W. OsulaNewcastleInjury
A. DedicNewcastleHamstring Injury
E. JaouenNewcastleAnkle Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Tottenham Newcastle
Full-time score02
Model predicted11
WRONG RESULT

Live match stats

StatTottenham Newcastle
Shots on goal 6 2
Shots off goal 8 7
Total shots 17 11
Blocked shots 3 2
Shots inside box 10 7
Shots outside box 7 4
Fouls 15 9
Corner kicks 9 7
Offsides 2 1
Ball possession 58% 42%
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 0 4
Total passes 491 366
Passes accurate 435 311
Pass accuracy 89% 85%
Expected goals (xG) 1.04 0.75
Goals prevented 0.66 0.66

Confirmed lineups

Tottenham (4-2-3-1)
31A. KinskyG
14A. GrayD
6J. P. van HeckeD
37M. van de VenD
3A. RobertsonD
30R. BentancurM
16S. TonaliM
23P. PorroM
18M. FernandesM
11M. TelM
22O. MarmoushF
Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
21L. HornicekG
37A. DedicD
12M. ThiawD
4S. BotmanD
3L. HallD
6NicoM
67L. MileyM
19A. ElangaM
28J. WillockM
11H. BarnesM
9Y. WissaF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results