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TOT LDDLD
COV LLLLW
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Tottenham vs Coventry City
2
Tottenham wins
0
Draws
0
Coventry City wins
From 2 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.61 vs 0.85
TottenhamCoventry City
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Tottenham
1 0
Coventry City
Model's most likely score · 13.7% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 18 Oct, 20:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
55.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Tottenham 1-0 Coventry City 13.7%
Tottenham 1-1 Coventry City 11.7%
Tottenham 2-0 Coventry City 11.0%
Tottenham 2-1 Coventry City 9.4%
Tottenham 0-0 Coventry City 8.6%

In brief

Nineteenth-placed Tottenham host fourteenth-placed Coventry City. Both sides arrive in poor form, and Coventry City won their last game after losing the four before it. Tottenham are still looking for a first home win and Coventry City have won one of their three away games. Tottenham are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Coventry City are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Tottenham favourites. The bookmakers give Tottenham a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Tottenham vs Coventry City
Attack strength
0.81 / 0.67
Defence strength
0.96 / 0.91
Head-to-head
1.08 / 0.92
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Tottenham win55%
Draw25%
Coventry City win20%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.2%
Overround
Tottenham LOWER
Model55.1%
Market63.8%
Difference -8.6 points
Draw HIGHER
Model24.9%
Market20.8%
Difference +4.2 points
Coventry City HIGHER
Model19.9%
Market15.5%
Difference +4.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.3%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.58 LOWER
Model44.6%
Market60.1%
Difference -15.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.38 HIGHER
Model55.4%
Market39.9%
Difference +15.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
D. KulusevskiTottenhamKnee Injury
W. OdobertTottenhamKnee Injury
P. PorroTottenhamMuscle Injury
X. SimonsTottenhamKnee Injury
M. MudrykTottenhamAnkle Injury
L. WoolfendenCoventryKnee Injury
H. WrightCoventryMuscle Injury
K. Kesler-HaydenCoventryMuscle Injury
J. EcclesCoventryInjury
A. AmendaCoventryCalf Injury
T. AwoniyiCoventryRed Card
J. LatibeaudiereCoventryInjury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 20:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results