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TOT WLLDD
AVL WLLDL
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Tottenham vs Aston Villa
11
Tottenham wins
0
Draws
9
Aston Villa wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.23 vs 0.26
TottenhamAston Villa
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueTottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
Referee Samuel Barrott
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Tottenham
2 3
Aston Villa
We predicted 0-0 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
65.0%
High
ScorelineProbability
Tottenham 0-0 Aston Villa 61.3%
Tottenham 0-1 Aston Villa 15.9%
Tottenham 1-0 Aston Villa 14.1%
Tottenham 1-1 Aston Villa 3.7%
Tottenham 0-2 Aston Villa 2.1%

In brief

Final score: Tottenham 2-3 Aston Villa. Seventeenth-placed Tottenham hosted nineteenth-placed Aston Villa. Both sides arrived in poor form. Tottenham were still looking for a first home win and Aston Villa were still looking for a first away win. Tottenham were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Aston Villa were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Aston Villa had the longer injury list. The model saw a draw as the likeliest result and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The model rated a draw as more likely than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Tottenham vs Aston Villa
Attack strength
0.20 / 0.34
Defence strength
1.09 / 0.83
Form factor
0.75 / 0.75
Head-to-head
1.06 / 0.94
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Tottenham win16%
Draw65%
Aston Villa win19%

Odds comparison — 1x2

59
Bookmakers
59
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Tottenham LOWER
Model16.3%
Market47.8%
Difference -31.5 points
Draw HIGHER
Model65.0%
Market25.6%
Difference +39.4 points
Aston Villa LOWER
Model18.7%
Market26.6%
Difference -7.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
23
Bookmakers
5.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.72 LOWER
Model1.4%
Market54.9%
Difference -53.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.1 HIGHER
Model98.6%
Market45.1%
Difference +53.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
D. KulusevskiTottenhamKnee Injury
W. OdobertTottenhamKnee Injury
X. SimonsTottenhamKnee Injury
J. MaddisonTottenhamKnock
M. MudrykTottenhamAnkle Injury
RicharlisonTottenhamTransfer negotiations
L. BaileyAston VillaMuscle Injury
B. MadjoAston VillaAnkle Injury
J. ManzambiAston VillaKnee Injury
A. OnanaAston VillaKnee Injury
M. CashAston VillaMuscle Injury
L. GoretzkaAston VillaKnee Injury
Joao GomesAston VillaRed Card
M. CisseAston VillaOff the roster
T. Harwood-BellisAston VillaOff the roster

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Tottenham Aston Villa
Full-time score23
Model predicted00
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 1 2 3 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Tottenham goal, 86'Tottenham goal, 90' Aston Villa goal, 45'Aston Villa goal, 67'Aston Villa goal, 79'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatTottenham Aston Villa
Passes accurate 504 280
Shots inside box 12 9
Shots outside box 8 6
Blocked shots 4 3
Free kicks 13 8
Shots on goal 7 6
Goalkeeper saves 3 5
Shots off goal 9 6
Offsides 5 2
Total passes 581 336
Total shots 20 15
Yellow cards 1 2
Corner kicks 11 1
Fouls 9 13
Red cards 0 0
Ball possession 64% 36%

Confirmed lineups

Tottenham (4-2-3-1)
31A. KinskýG
23Pedro PorroD
6J. van HeckeD
37M. van de VenD
3A. RobertsonD
30R. BentancurM
16S. TonaliM
17SávioM
18Mateus FernandesM
22Omar MarmoushM
19D. SolankeF
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
1Z. SuzukiG
29A. Wan-BissakaD
3V. LindelöfD
5T. MingsD
13M. RuggeriD
8B. KamaraM
35João GomesM
7J. McGinnM
44J. ManzambiM
10E. BuendíaM
11N. JacksonF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results