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Recent form

SUN L
FUL L
Last 5 league results · 0% vs 0% of points taken

Head to head

Sunderland vs Fulham
4
Sunderland wins
5
Draws
7
Fulham wins
From 16 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.72 vs 0.65
SunderlandFulham
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueStadium of Light, Sunderland
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Sunderland
1 0
Fulham
We predicted 2-0 CORRECT RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
63.1%
High
ScorelineProbability
Sunderland 1-0 Fulham 16.1%
Sunderland 2-0 Fulham 13.8%
Sunderland 1-1 Fulham 10.5%
Sunderland 0-0 Fulham 9.4%
Sunderland 2-1 Fulham 9.0%

In brief

Final score: Sunderland 1-0 Fulham. Thirteenth-placed Sunderland hosted twelfth-placed Fulham. Both sides arrived in poor form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Sunderland favourites. The model gave Sunderland a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Sunderland vs Fulham
Attack strength
0.93 / 1.07
Defence strength
0.94 / 0.83
Form factor
0.75 / 0.75
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.01
Injury factor
0.94 / 0.94
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Sunderland win63%
Draw23%
Fulham win14%

Odds comparison — 1x2

61
Bookmakers
61
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Sunderland HIGHER
Model63.1%
Market38.9%
Difference +24.2 points
Draw LOWER
Model23.2%
Market28.9%
Difference -5.8 points
Fulham LOWER
Model13.7%
Market32.2%
Difference -18.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
27
Bookmakers
5.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.03 LOWER
Model42.1%
Market46.6%
Difference -4.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.77 HIGHER
Model57.9%
Market53.4%
Difference +4.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
H. DiarraSunderlandHamstring Injury
R. MundleSunderlandKnee Injury
T. CairneyFulhamKnee Injury
L. De FougerollesFulhamInjury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Sunderland Fulham
Full-time score10
Model predicted20
CORRECT RESULT

Live match stats

StatSunderland Fulham
Shots on goal 4 0
Shots off goal 6 2
Total shots 12 9
Blocked shots 2 7
Shots inside box 9 5
Shots outside box 3 4
Fouls 10 15
Corner kicks 3 4
Offsides 1 1
Ball possession 42% 58%
Yellow cards 0 2
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 0 3
Total passes 393 556
Passes accurate 326 470
Pass accuracy 83% 85%
Expected goals (xG) 1.75 0.79
Goals prevented 0.15 0.15

Confirmed lineups

Sunderland (4-2-3-1)
22Robin RoefsG
12Thomas MeunierD
20Nordi MukieleD
5Daniel BallardD
17Reinildo MandavaD
34Granit XhakaM
27Noah SadikiM
32Trai HumeM
28Enzo Le FéeM
10Nilson AnguloM
9Brian BrobbeyF
Fulham (4-2-3-1)
1Bernd LenoG
21Timothy CastagneD
5Joachim AndersenD
3Calvin BasseyD
33Antonee RobinsonD
16Sander BergeM
17Alex IwobiM
14Oscar BobbM
24Joshua KingM
8César PalaciosM
7Gonzalo GarcíaF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results