Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

SUN LWDLL
BHA WLDWW
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 67% of points taken

Head to head

Sunderland AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion
0
Sunderland AFC wins
1
Draws
2
Brighton & Hove Albion wins
From 3 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.64 vs 1.9
Sunderland AFCBrighton & Hove Albion
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueStadium of Light, Sunderland
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Sunderland AFC
2 2
Brighton & Hove Albion
Model's expected scoreline · 7.0% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
44.2%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Sunderland AFC 1-1 Brighton & Hove Albion 9.0%
Sunderland AFC 1-2 Brighton & Hove Albion 8.6%
Sunderland AFC 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion 7.4%
Sunderland AFC 2-2 Brighton & Hove Albion 7.0%
Sunderland AFC 0-1 Brighton & Hove Albion 5.5%

In brief

Fourteenth-placed Sunderland AFC host third-placed Brighton & Hove Albion. Sunderland AFC arrive in poor form and Brighton & Hove Albion in good form. Sunderland AFC have won one of their two home games and Brighton & Hove Albion have won one of their two away games. Brighton & Hove Albion are the league's top scorers. Brighton & Hove Albion have had much the better of their past meetings. Brighton & Hove Albion have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Brighton & Hove Albion a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Sunderland AFC vs Brighton & Hove Albion
Attack strength
1.06 / 1.38
Defence strength
0.94 / 1.08
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
1.07 / 0.93
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Sunderland AFC win34%
Draw22%
Brighton & Hove Albion win44%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Sunderland AFC —
Model33.8%
Market34.5%
Difference -0.7 points
Draw LOWER
Model22.0%
Market27.7%
Difference -5.7 points
Brighton & Hove Albion HIGHER
Model44.2%
Market37.8%
Difference +6.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
15
Bookmakers
6.4%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.85 HIGHER
Model68.6%
Market50.7%
Difference +17.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.91 LOWER
Model31.4%
Market49.3%
Difference -17.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
H. DiarraSunderlandHamstring Injury
R. MandavaSunderlandRed Card
R. MundleSunderlandKnee Injury
E. FergusonBrightonAnkle Injury
Y. MintehBrightonInjury
K. MitomaBrightonHamstring Injury
S. TzimasBrightonKnee Injury
J. HinshelwoodBrightonInjury
F. AzeezBrightonAbdominal strain
M. WiefferBrightonKnee Injury
Z. YohannaBrightonLacking Match Fitness

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Stadium of Light fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results