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NOT DLDDW
COV LLLL
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 0% of points taken

Head to head

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City
4
Nottingham Forest wins
0
Draws
3
Coventry City wins
From 7 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.97 vs 0.26
Nottingham ForestCoventry City
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueCity Ground, Nottingham
Referee Jarred Gillett
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Nottingham Forest
0 1
Coventry City
We predicted 1-0 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
53.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Nottingham Forest 0-0 Coventry City 29.1%
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Coventry City 28.2%
Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry City 13.7%
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry City 7.7%
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Coventry City 7.5%

In brief

Final score: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Coventry City. Twelfth-placed Nottingham Forest hosted bottom side Coventry City. Nottingham Forest arrived in mixed form and Coventry City in poor form, and Coventry City had lost their last four. Nottingham Forest were still looking for a first home win and Coventry City had lost every away game this season. Coventry City were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and had one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Coventry City had the longer injury list. The model made Nottingham Forest favourites and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The model rated a draw as more likely than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City
Attack strength
0.77 / 0.40
Defence strength
1.29 / 0.90
Form factor
0.80 / 0.75
Head-to-head
1.03 / 0.97
Injury factor
0.97 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Nottingham Forest win53%
Draw37%
Coventry City win10%

Odds comparison — 1x2

57
Bookmakers
57
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Nottingham Forest —
Model53.0%
Market55.8%
Difference -2.8 points
Draw HIGHER
Model37.1%
Market24.3%
Difference +12.7 points
Coventry City LOWER
Model10.0%
Market19.9%
Difference -10.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
22
Bookmakers
5.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.74 LOWER
Model12.8%
Market54.2%
Difference -41.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.06 HIGHER
Model87.2%
Market45.8%
Difference +41.4 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
N. SavonaNottingham ForestKnee Injury
L. WoolfendenCoventryKnee Injury
H. WrightCoventryMuscle Injury
K. Kesler-HaydenCoventryMuscle Injury
Y. GbohoCoventryTransfer negotiations
S. MfuniCoventryLoan agreement
J. EcclesCoventryInjury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Nottingham Forest Coventry City
Full-time score01
Model predicted10
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Coventry City goal, 55'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatNottingham Forest Coventry
Passes accurate 428 232
Shots inside box 12 5
Shots outside box 12 5
Blocked shots 12 1
Free kicks 10 12
Shots on goal 3 3
Goalkeeper saves 2 2
Shots off goal 9 6
Offsides 2 2
Total passes 507 307
Total shots 24 10
Yellow cards 2 0
Corner kicks 6 2
Fouls 12 10
Red cards 0 0
Ball possession 63% 37%

Confirmed lineups

Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
26M. SelsG
23JairD
2O. DiomandeD
5MurilloD
27D. MuñozM
21X. SchlagerM
24J. McAteeM
3N. WilliamsM
14D. NdoyeM
10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
19L. DelapF
Coventry (3-4-2-1)
19C. RushworthG
12S. MfuniD
4B. ThomasD
2E. PinnockD
8Caleb Marfo YirenkyiM
16F. OnyekaM
6M. GrimesM
3J. DasilvaM
5J. RudoniM
10E. Mason-ClarkM
23B. Thomas-AsanteF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results