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Recent form

NOT DDWLL
ARS WWWLW
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 80% of points taken

Head to head

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
3
Nottingham Forest wins
2
Draws
7
Arsenal wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.89 vs 1.26
Nottingham ForestArsenal
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueCity Ground, Nottingham
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Nottingham Forest
0 1
Arsenal
Model's most likely score · 14.7% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 16:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
45.1%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Nottingham Forest 0-1 Arsenal 14.7%
Nottingham Forest 1-1 Arsenal 13.0%
Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal 11.7%
Nottingham Forest 1-0 Arsenal 10.3%
Nottingham Forest 0-2 Arsenal 9.3%

In brief

Fifteenth-placed Nottingham Forest host second-placed Arsenal. Nottingham Forest arrive in poor form and Arsenal in excellent form. Nottingham Forest are still looking for a first home win and Arsenal have won two of their three away games. Nottingham Forest are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides; Arsenal have one of the league's tightest defences. Arsenal have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Arsenal slight favourites and expects a tight, low-scoring game. The bookmakers give Arsenal a better chance than the model does.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Attack strength
0.72 / 0.98
Defence strength
1.19 / 1.16
Head-to-head
0.85 / 1.15
Injury factor
1.03 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Nottingham Forest win26%
Draw29%
Arsenal win45%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Nottingham Forest HIGHER
Model26.0%
Market16.2%
Difference +9.8 points
Draw HIGHER
Model28.9%
Market24.0%
Difference +4.8 points
Arsenal LOWER
Model45.1%
Market59.7%
Difference -14.6 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
8
Bookmakers
4.8%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.91 LOWER
Model36.3%
Market49.9%
Difference -13.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.9 HIGHER
Model63.7%
Market50.1%
Difference +13.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
N. SavonaNottingham ForestKnee Injury
Igor JesusNottingham ForestCalf Injury
N. MilenkovicNottingham ForestKnee Injury
W. SalibaArsenalBack Injury
C. MosqueraArsenalMuscle Injury
C. TzolisArsenalHamstring Injury
P. HincapieArsenalAnkle Injury
M. ZubimendiArsenalKnock

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at City Ground fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 16:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 16:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results