Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

NEW WLDWD
HUL LWWDD
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 53% of points taken

Head to head

Newcastle vs Hull City
3
Newcastle wins
2
Draws
1
Hull City wins
From 6 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.87 vs 0.99
NewcastleHull City
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueSt. James' Park, Newcastle
Referee Tony Harrington
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Newcastle
2 1
Hull City
We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
37.0%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Newcastle 0-0 Hull City 15.5%
Newcastle 0-1 Hull City 15.4%
Newcastle 1-0 Hull City 13.6%
Newcastle 1-1 Hull City 13.4%
Newcastle 0-2 Hull City 7.6%

In brief

Final score: Newcastle 2-1 Hull City. Tenth-placed Newcastle hosted third-placed Hull City. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Newcastle were still looking for a first home win and Hull City were unbeaten away from home. Hull City had one of the league's tightest defences. Newcastle had much the better of their earlier meetings. Hull City had the longer injury list. The model saw little between the sides and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The bookmakers gave Newcastle a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Newcastle vs Hull City
Attack strength
1.26 / 0.92
Defence strength
1.03 / 2.06
Form factor
1.07 / 1.07
Head-to-head
1.12 / 0.88
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Newcastle win31%
Draw32%
Hull City win37%

Odds comparison — 1x2

57
Bookmakers
57
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Newcastle LOWER
Model30.9%
Market62.9%
Difference -32.1 points
Draw HIGHER
Model32.1%
Market21.1%
Difference +11.0 points
Hull City HIGHER
Model37.0%
Market15.9%
Difference +21.1 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
12
Bookmakers
6.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.61 LOWER
Model28.6%
Market58.5%
Difference -29.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.27 HIGHER
Model71.4%
Market41.5%
Difference +29.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
JoelintonNewcastleThigh Injury
D. BurnNewcastleAnkle Injury
W. OsulaNewcastleInjury
A. DedicNewcastleHamstring Injury
E. JaouenNewcastleAnkle Injury
J. ButlandHull CityArm Injury
D. GyabiHull CityGroin Injury
C. HughesHull CityGroin Injury
E. MatazoHull CityKnee Injury
H. MoritaHull CityCalf Injury
O. ZambranoHull CityHamstring Injury
I. AnsahHull CityBack Injury
M. CrooksHull CityMuscle Injury
P. McNairHull CityInjury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Newcastle Hull City
Full-time score21
Model predicted11
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Newcastle goal, 3'Newcastle goal, 7' Hull City goal, 67'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatNewcastle Hull City
Passes accurate 460 302
Shots inside box 9 12
Shots outside box 3 10
Blocked shots 2 11
Free kicks 10 4
Shots on goal 5 4
Goalkeeper saves 3 3
Shots off goal 5 7
Offsides 2 1
Total passes 523 382
Total shots 12 22
Yellow cards 1 4
Corner kicks 4 7
Fouls 4 10
Red cards 0 0
Ball possession 56% 44%

Confirmed lineups

Newcastle (4-2-3-1)
21L. HorníčekG
67L. MileyD
12M. ThiawD
4S. BotmanD
3L. HallD
14Sean SteurM
28J. WillockM
23J. MurphyM
20M. Fernandez-PardoM
11H. BarnesM
9Y. WissaF
Hull City (5-4-1)
19K. TzolakisG
2L. CoyleD
6S. AjayiD
15J. EganD
22L. HerringtonD
3R. GilesD
10M. BelloumiM
25M. CrooksM
27R. SlaterM
7S. ThomasM
9O. McBurnieF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results