Smart stats. Honest predictions.
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Recent form

NEW DWLDW
BOU WDDLD
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Newcastle vs Bournemouth
5
Newcastle wins
8
Draws
5
Bournemouth wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.83 vs 0.66
NewcastleBournemouth
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueSt. James' Park, Newcastle
Referee R. Jones
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Newcastle
2 2
Bournemouth
We predicted 2-0 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
65.5%
High
ScorelineProbability
Newcastle 1-0 Bournemouth 15.3%
Newcastle 2-0 Bournemouth 13.9%
Newcastle 1-1 Bournemouth 10.0%
Newcastle 2-1 Bournemouth 9.1%
Newcastle 3-0 Bournemouth 8.5%

In brief

Final score: Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth. Sixth-placed Newcastle hosted fourteenth-placed Bournemouth. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Newcastle clear favourites. The model gave Newcastle a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Attack strength
1.12 / 0.86
Defence strength
1.17 / 1.01
Form factor
1.07 / 0.80
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.01
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.88
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Newcastle win66%
Draw22%
Bournemouth win13%

Odds comparison — 1x2

61
Bookmakers
61
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Newcastle HIGHER
Model65.5%
Market43.7%
Difference +21.8 points
Draw LOWER
Model21.8%
Market25.7%
Difference -3.9 points
Bournemouth LOWER
Model12.7%
Market30.6%
Difference -17.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
17
Bookmakers
5.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.57 LOWER
Model45.2%
Market60.1%
Difference -14.9 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.36 HIGHER
Model54.8%
Market39.9%
Difference +14.9 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
JoelintonNewcastleThigh Injury
D. BurnNewcastleAnkle Injury
W. OsulaNewcastleInjury
A. DedicNewcastleHamstring Injury
E. JaouenNewcastleAnkle Injury
A. AdliBournemouthCalf Injury
J. AraujoBournemouthThigh Injury
E. J. KroupiBournemouthFoot Injury
V. MilosavljevicBournemouthInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results