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Recent form

NEW DWDLW
AVL LDLWD
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 33% of points taken

Head to head

Newcastle vs Aston Villa
7
Newcastle wins
7
Draws
6
Aston Villa wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.79 vs 1.53
NewcastleAston Villa
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueSt. James' Park, Newcastle
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Newcastle
1 1
Aston Villa
Model's most likely score · 9.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 17:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
44.1%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Newcastle 1-1 Aston Villa 9.9%
Newcastle 2-1 Aston Villa 8.9%
Newcastle 1-2 Aston Villa 7.6%
Newcastle 2-2 Aston Villa 6.8%
Newcastle 1-0 Aston Villa 6.5%

In brief

Eleventh-placed Newcastle host sixteenth-placed Aston Villa. Newcastle arrive in mixed form and Aston Villa in poor form. Newcastle are unbeaten at home and Aston Villa have won one of their three away games. Newcastle have one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides and expects plenty of goals. The model gives Aston Villa a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Attack strength
1.02 / 0.94
Defence strength
0.83 / 0.95
Head-to-head
1.02 / 0.98
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Newcastle win44%
Draw23%
Aston Villa win33%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Newcastle —
Model44.1%
Market44.7%
Difference -0.6 points
Draw —
Model22.8%
Market25.5%
Difference -2.7 points
Aston Villa HIGHER
Model33.1%
Market29.8%
Difference +3.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.61 HIGHER
Model64.4%
Market59.1%
Difference +5.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.33 LOWER
Model35.5%
Market40.9%
Difference -5.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
JoelintonNewcastleThigh Injury
V. LivramentoNewcastleInjury
D. BurnNewcastleAnkle Injury
W. OsulaNewcastleFoot Injury
A. ElangaNewcastleKnee Injury
E. JaouenNewcastleMuscle Injury
J. RamseyNewcastleInjury
B. MadjoAston VillaOff the roster
A. OnanaAston VillaKnee Injury
L. GoretzkaAston VillaKnee Injury
M. CisseAston VillaOff the roster
I. MaatsenAston VillaAnkle Injury
T. Harwood-BellisAston VillaOff the roster
M. RuggeriAston VillaInjury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at St. James' Park fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 17:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 17:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results