Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

MUN LWDLD
TOT LLDDL
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 13% of points taken

Head to head

Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
9
Manchester United wins
4
Draws
7
Tottenham Hotspur wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.92 vs 1.11
Manchester UnitedTottenham Hotspur
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueOld Trafford, Manchester
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Manchester United
2 1
Tottenham Hotspur
Model's expected scoreline · 9.9% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 17:30 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
56.4%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Manchester United 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur 10.3%
Manchester United 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur 9.9%
Manchester United 1-0 Tottenham Hotspur 9.3%
Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham Hotspur 8.9%
Manchester United 3-1 Tottenham Hotspur 6.3%

In brief

Twelfth-placed Manchester United host bottom side Tottenham Hotspur. Both sides arrive in poor form. Manchester United have won one of their two home games and Tottenham Hotspur are still looking for a first away win. Tottenham Hotspur are one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Manchester United favourites. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
Attack strength
1.19 / 0.83
Defence strength
1.01 / 1.0
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.01
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Manchester United win56%
Draw22%
Tottenham Hotspur win22%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.3%
Overround
Manchester United —
Model56.4%
Market56.2%
Difference +0.2 points
Draw —
Model22.1%
Market22.6%
Difference -0.5 points
Tottenham Hotspur —
Model21.5%
Market21.2%
Difference +0.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

3.5
Goals line
10
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 3.5 goalsAverage odds 2.22 LOWER
Model35.9%
Market42.1%
Difference -6.2 points
Under 3.5 goalsAverage odds 1.61 HIGHER
Model64.1%
Market57.9%
Difference +6.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. HeatonManchester UnitedInjury
M. UgarteManchester UnitedKnee Injury
M. de LigtManchester UnitedBack Injury
A. DialloManchester UnitedInjury
B. SeskoManchester UnitedInactive
D. KulusevskiTottenhamKnee Injury
W. OdobertTottenhamKnee Injury
X. SimonsTottenhamKnee Injury
M. MudrykTottenhamAnkle Injury
RicharlisonTottenhamInactive

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Old Trafford fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 17:30 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 17:30 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results