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Recent form

MCI LWWWW
SUN WLWDL
Last 5 league results · 80% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Man City vs Sunderland
11
Man City wins
3
Draws
4
Sunderland wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

2.36 vs 0.27
Man CitySunderland
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEtihad Stadium, Manchester
Referee Robert Jones
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Man City
5 3
Sunderland
We predicted 2-0 CORRECT RESULT
LOCKED 16h 04m before kickoff · 19 Sep 2026, 21:55 BST · Premier League record #3 a7214124b6
Outcome certainty
84.3%
High
ScorelineProbability
Man City 2-0 Sunderland 20.0%
Man City 1-0 Sunderland 17.0%
Man City 3-0 Sunderland 15.8%
Man City 4-0 Sunderland 9.3%
Man City 0-0 Sunderland 7.2%

In brief

Final score: Man City 5-3 Sunderland. Leaders Man City hosted fourteenth-placed Sunderland. Man City arrived in excellent form and Sunderland in mixed form, and Man City had won their last four. Man City had won every home game this season and Sunderland were still looking for a first away win. Man City were one of the league's highest-scoring sides and had conceded the fewest goals in the league; Sunderland were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Man City had much the better of their earlier meetings. Sunderland had the longer injury list. The model made Man City clear favourites. The model gave Man City a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Man City vs Sunderland
Attack strength
1.33 / 0.62
Defence strength
2.07 / 1.10
Form factor
1.25 / 0.93
Head-to-head
1.13 / 0.87
Injury factor
0.91 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Man City win84%
Draw13%
Sunderland win3%

Odds comparison — 1x2

42
Bookmakers
42
Offering 1x2
5.2%
Overround
Man City HIGHER
Model84.3%
Market72.1%
Difference +12.2 points
Draw LOWER
Model12.6%
Market17.4%
Difference -4.8 points
Sunderland LOWER
Model3.0%
Market10.5%
Difference -7.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
13
Bookmakers
6.1%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.59 LOWER
Model48.9%
Market59.3%
Difference -10.4 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.31 HIGHER
Model51.0%
Market40.7%
Difference +10.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. DokuManchester CityCalf Injury
P. FodenManchester CityRed Card
N. O'ReillyManchester CityBack Injury
H. DiarraSunderlandHamstring Injury
R. MundleSunderlandKnee Injury
R. MandavaSunderlandRed Card
O. AldereteSunderlandInjury
J. AnguloSunderlandOff the roster
A. BrowneSunderlandOff the roster
M. EllborgSunderlandOff the roster
J. Ta BiSunderlandOff the roster
C. TalbiSunderlandOff the roster
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results