Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

MCI WWWWW
IPS LLWLW
Last 5 league results · 100% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Man City vs Ipswich Town
2
Man City wins
0
Draws
0
Ipswich Town wins
From 2 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

3.17 vs 1.06
Man CityIpswich Town
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueEtihad Stadium, Manchester
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Man City
3 1
Ipswich Town
Model's most likely score · 8.2% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
78.0%
High
ScorelineProbability
Man City 3-1 Ipswich Town 8.2%
Man City 2-1 Ipswich Town 7.8%
Man City 3-0 Ipswich Town 7.7%
Man City 2-0 Ipswich Town 7.3%
Man City 4-1 Ipswich Town 6.5%

In brief

Leaders Man City host tenth-placed Ipswich Town. Man City arrive in excellent form and Ipswich Town in mixed form, and Man City have won their last five. Man City have won every home game this season and Ipswich Town have won one of their three away games. Man City are one of the league's highest-scoring sides and have conceded the fewest goals in the league. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model makes Man City clear favourites and expects plenty of goals. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Man City vs Ipswich Town
Attack strength
1.32 / 0.92
Defence strength
1.02 / 0.78
Head-to-head
1.15 / 0.85
Injury factor
1.00 / 1.00
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Man City win78%
Draw12%
Ipswich Town win9%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Man City —
Model78.0%
Market77.0%
Difference +1.0 points
Draw —
Model12.4%
Market14.3%
Difference -1.9 points
Ipswich Town —
Model9.1%
Market8.8%
Difference +0.3 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
6.9%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.35 HIGHER
Model78.8%
Market69.5%
Difference +9.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 3.06 LOWER
Model20.7%
Market30.5%
Difference -9.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
P. FodenManchester CityRed Card
I. FatawuIpswichRed Card

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Etihad Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results