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MCI LWWWW
COV LLLL
Last 5 league results · 80% vs 0% of points taken

Head to head

Man City vs Coventry City
1
Man City wins
0
Draws
0
Coventry City wins
From 1 meeting on record

Expected goals (xG)

3.71 vs 0.08
Man CityCoventry City
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueEtihad Stadium, Manchester
Referee Paul Tierney, England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Man City
1 0
Coventry City
We predicted 4-0 CORRECT RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
95.4%
High
ScorelineProbability
Man City 3-0 Coventry City 19.2%
Man City 4-0 Coventry City 17.8%
Man City 2-0 Coventry City 15.5%
Man City 5-0 Coventry City 13.2%
Man City 1-0 Coventry City 8.4%

In brief

Final score: Man City 1-0 Coventry City. Second-placed Man City hosted bottom side Coventry City. Man City arrived in excellent form and Coventry City in poor form, and Man City had won their last four while Coventry City had lost their last four. Man City had won every home game this season and Coventry City had lost every away game this season. Man City had one of the league's tightest defences; Coventry City were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides and had one of the league's leakiest defences. Coventry City had the longer injury list. The model made Man City clear favourites and expected plenty of goals.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Man City vs Coventry City
Attack strength
1.34 / 0.20
Defence strength
2.06 / 0.61
Form factor
1.25 / 0.75
Head-to-head
1.02 / 0.98
Injury factor
0.94 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Man City win95%
Draw3%
Coventry City win0%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. DokuManchester CityCalf Injury
N. O'ReillyManchester CityBack Injury
L. WoolfendenCoventryKnee Injury
H. WrightCoventryMuscle Injury
K. Kesler-HaydenCoventryMuscle Injury
J. EcclesCoventryInjury
Y. GbohoCoventryTransfer negotiations
S. MfuniCoventryLoan agreement

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Man City Coventry City
Full-time score10
Model predicted40
CORRECT RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 1 2 3 4 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Man City goal, 26'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatManchester City Coventry
Shots on goal 4 3
Shots off goal 5 6
Total shots 15 12
Blocked shots 6 3
Shots inside box 14 8
Shots outside box 1 4
Fouls 7 17
Corner kicks 4 5
Offsides 5 2
Ball possession 78% 22%
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 3 2
Total passes 819 220
Passes accurate 751 140
Pass accuracy 92% 64%
Expected goals (xG) 2.12 1.37
Goals prevented 0.41 0.41

Confirmed lineups

Manchester City (4-2-3-1)
1G. DonnarummaG
45A. KhusanovD
3R. DiasD
6M. GuehiD
24J. GvardiolD
17E. FernandezM
5E. AndersonM
42A. SemenyoM
10R. CherkiM
7I. NdiayeM
9E. HaalandF
Coventry (3-4-2-1)
19C. RushworthG
24A. AmendaD
4B. ThomasD
2E. PinnockD
27M. van EwijkM
16F. OnyekaM
6M. GrimesM
3J. DasilvaM
5J. RudoniF
10E. Mason-ClarkF
14T. AwoniyiF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results