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Recent form

LIV D
NOT L
Last 5 league results · 33% vs 0% of points taken

Head to head

Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
5
Liverpool wins
1
Draws
3
Nottingham Forest wins
From 9 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.43 vs 0.49
LiverpoolNottingham Forest
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueAnfield, Liverpool
Referee S. Barrott
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Liverpool
2 2
Nottingham Forest
We predicted 1-0 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
60.6%
High
ScorelineProbability
Liverpool 1-0 Nottingham Forest 21.1%
Liverpool 2-0 Nottingham Forest 15.0%
Liverpool 0-0 Nottingham Forest 14.8%
Liverpool 1-1 Nottingham Forest 10.2%
Liverpool 2-1 Nottingham Forest 7.3%

In brief

Final score: Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest. Tenth-placed Liverpool hosted fifteenth-placed Nottingham Forest. Both sides arrived in poor form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Liverpool had the longer injury list. The model made Liverpool favourites and expected a tight, low-scoring game. The model rated a draw as more likely than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Attack strength
1.07 / 0.80
Defence strength
0.94 / 1.07
Form factor
0.75 / 0.75
Head-to-head
1.02 / 0.98
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.97
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Liverpool win61%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest win13%

Odds comparison — 1x2

61
Bookmakers
61
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Liverpool LOWER
Model60.6%
Market63.9%
Difference -3.3 points
Draw HIGHER
Model26.9%
Market20.7%
Difference +6.2 points
Nottingham Forest —
Model12.5%
Market15.4%
Difference -2.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
20
Bookmakers
6.0%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.59 LOWER
Model30.0%
Market59.3%
Difference -29.3 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.32 HIGHER
Model70.0%
Market40.7%
Difference +29.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
C. BradleyLiverpoolKnee Injury
H. EkitikeLiverpoolAchilles Tendon Injury
J. GomezLiverpoolMuscle Injury
G. LeoniLiverpoolKnee Injury
F. ChiesaLiverpoolBack Injury
W. EndoLiverpoolOff the roster
C. GakpoLiverpoolMuscle Injury
N. SavonaNottingham ForestKnee Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Liverpool Nottingham Forest
Full-time score22
Model predicted10
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Liverpool goal, 60'Liverpool goal, 82' Nottingham Forest goal, 24'Nottingham Forest goal, 70'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatLiverpool Nottingham Forest
Shots on goal 4 3
Shots off goal 5 3
Total shots 13 12
Blocked shots 4 6
Shots inside box 8 11
Shots outside box 5 1
Fouls 13 10
Corner kicks 3 5
Offsides 3 0
Ball possession 69% 31%
Yellow cards 4 2
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 1 2
Total passes 631 288
Passes accurate 562 193
Pass accuracy 89% 67%
Expected goals (xG) 1.75 2.30
Goals prevented 0.02 0.02

Confirmed lineups

Liverpool (4-2-3-1)
1AlissonG
30J. FrimpongD
5J. JacquetD
4V. van DijkD
6M. KerkezD
8D. SzoboszlaiM
10A. Mac AllisterM
18C. GakpoM
7F. WirtzM
23V. MunozM
9A. IsakF
Nottingham Forest (3-4-2-1)
26M. SelsG
23CunhaD
31N. MilenkovicD
5MurilloD
34O. AinaM
21X. SchlagerM
24J. McAteeM
3N. WilliamsM
10M. Gibbs-WhiteF
14D. NdoyeF
11Igor JesusF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results