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Recent form

LEE DDWDL
MUN WDLDD
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Leeds United vs Man United
1
Leeds United wins
5
Draws
6
Man United wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.36 vs 1.39
Leeds UnitedMan United
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueElland Road, Leeds
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Leeds United
1 1
Man United
Model's most likely score · 12.1% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 17 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
37.9%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Leeds United 1-1 Man United 12.1%
Leeds United 0-1 Man United 8.9%
Leeds United 1-0 Man United 8.7%
Leeds United 1-2 Man United 8.4%
Leeds United 2-1 Man United 8.2%

In brief

Seventh-placed Leeds United host thirteenth-placed Man United. Both sides arrive in mixed form. Leeds United are unbeaten at home and Man United are still looking for a first away win. Man United have had much the better of their past meetings. Man United have the longer injury list. The model sees little between the sides. The bookmakers broadly agree with the model.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Leeds United vs Man United
Attack strength
1.00 / 1.05
Defence strength
1.11 / 1.10
Head-to-head
0.87 / 1.13
Injury factor
1.06 / 0.94
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Leeds United win37%
Draw26%
Man United win38%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.1%
Overround
Leeds United —
Model36.6%
Market38.5%
Difference -1.9 points
Draw —
Model25.5%
Market26.4%
Difference -0.9 points
Man United —
Model37.9%
Market35.1%
Difference +2.8 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.1%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.64 LOWER
Model52.0%
Market58.1%
Difference -6.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.27 HIGHER
Model48.0%
Market41.9%
Difference +6.2 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. JosephLeedsKnee Injury
J. RodonLeedsMuscle Injury
D. JamesLeedsBack Injury
T. HeatonManchester UnitedAbdominal strain
M. UgarteManchester UnitedKnee Injury
M. de LigtManchester UnitedBack Injury
P. DorguManchester UnitedHamstring Injury
N. MazraouiManchester UnitedInjury
B. SeskoManchester UnitedLeg Injury
K. DarlowManchester UnitedInjury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Elland Road fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results