Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

LEE LWDDW
CRY LLLWL
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 20% of points taken

Head to head

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
5
Leeds United wins
5
Draws
3
Crystal Palace wins
From 13 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

3.09 vs 0.54
Leeds UnitedCrystal Palace
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueElland Road, Leeds
Referee Adam Herczeg
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Leeds United
0 0
Crystal Palace
We predicted 3-1 WRONG RESULT
LOCKED 16h 04m before kickoff · 19 Sep 2026, 21:55 BST · Premier League record #2 34d85ea4f4
Outcome certainty
86.4%
High
ScorelineProbability
Leeds United 3-0 Crystal Palace 13.0%
Leeds United 2-0 Crystal Palace 12.6%
Leeds United 4-0 Crystal Palace 10.0%
Leeds United 1-0 Crystal Palace 8.2%
Leeds United 3-1 Crystal Palace 7.1%

In brief

Final score: Leeds United 0-0 Crystal Palace. Sixth-placed Leeds United hosted seventeenth-placed Crystal Palace. Leeds United arrived in mixed form and Crystal Palace in poor form. Leeds United were unbeaten at home and Crystal Palace had won one of their two away games. Leeds United had one of the league's tightest defences; Crystal Palace had one of the league's leakiest defences. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Crystal Palace had the longer injury list. The model made Leeds United clear favourites and expected plenty of goals. The model gave Leeds United a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace
Attack strength
1.19 / 1.05
Defence strength
1.60 / 0.57
Form factor
1.07 / 0.75
Head-to-head
1.00 / 1.00
Injury factor
0.91 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Leeds United win86%
Draw9%
Crystal Palace win4%

Odds comparison — 1x2

42
Bookmakers
42
Offering 1x2
5.1%
Overround
Leeds United HIGHER
Model86.4%
Market55.6%
Difference +30.8 points
Draw LOWER
Model9.3%
Market24.2%
Difference -14.8 points
Crystal Palace LOWER
Model3.8%
Market20.2%
Difference -16.4 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
18
Bookmakers
5.7%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.69 HIGHER
Model69.9%
Market55.9%
Difference +14.0 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.15 LOWER
Model29.7%
Market44.1%
Difference -14.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. JosephLeedsKnee Injury
J. RodonLeedsMuscle Injury
H. WilsonLeedsMuscle Injury
J. MatetaCrystal PalaceHamstring Injury
C. RiadCrystal PalaceKnee Injury
I. SarrCrystal PalaceGroin Injury
E. NketiahCrystal PalaceInjury
A. DisasiCrystal PalaceRed Card
D. HendersonCrystal PalaceFoot Injury
C. DoucoureCrystal PalaceOff the roster
Z. GozoCrystal PalaceOff the roster
E. GuessandCrystal PalaceOff the roster
J. LermaCrystal PalaceOff the roster
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results