Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

LEE W
BRE W
Last 5 league results · 100% vs 100% of points taken

Head to head

Leeds United vs Brentford
4
Leeds United wins
8
Draws
6
Brentford wins
From 18 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.79 vs 0.85
Leeds UnitedBrentford
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueElland Road, Leeds
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Leeds United
1 1
Brentford
We predicted 1-1 EXACT SCORE
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
59.5%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Leeds United 1-0 Brentford 12.8%
Leeds United 2-0 Brentford 11.4%
Leeds United 1-1 Brentford 10.9%
Leeds United 2-1 Brentford 9.7%
Leeds United 0-0 Brentford 7.2%

In brief

Final score: Leeds United 1-1 Brentford. Ninth-placed Leeds United hosted third-placed Brentford. Both sides arrived in excellent form. Past meetings between the two had been fairly even. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Leeds United favourites. The model gave Leeds United a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Leeds United vs Brentford
Attack strength
0.93 / 1.20
Defence strength
1.25 / 1.25
Form factor
1.25 / 1.25
Head-to-head
0.96 / 1.04
Injury factor
0.91 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Leeds United win59%
Draw23%
Brentford win18%

Odds comparison — 1x2

61
Bookmakers
61
Offering 1x2
5.9%
Overround
Leeds United HIGHER
Model59.5%
Market37.6%
Difference +21.9 points
Draw LOWER
Model22.9%
Market28.0%
Difference -5.0 points
Brentford LOWER
Model17.6%
Market34.5%
Difference -16.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
27
Bookmakers
5.6%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.87 —
Model49.1%
Market50.7%
Difference -1.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.92 —
Model50.9%
Market49.3%
Difference +1.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
M. JosephLeedsKnee Injury
I. GruevLeedsKnee Injury
J. RodonLeedsMuscle Injury
A. MilamboBrentfordKnee Injury
S. van den BergBrentfordInjury
N. CollinsBrentfordInjury
J. DasilvaBrentfordInjury
M. JensenBrentfordMuscle Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Leeds United Brentford
Full-time score11
Model predicted11
EXACT SCORE

Live match stats

StatLeeds Brentford
Shots on goal 2 5
Shots off goal 5 6
Total shots 13 22
Blocked shots 6 11
Shots inside box 6 18
Shots outside box 7 4
Fouls 5 13
Corner kicks 5 6
Offsides 2 0
Ball possession 47% 53%
Yellow cards 0 4
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 4 1
Total passes 365 417
Passes accurate 278 327
Pass accuracy 76% 78%
Expected goals (xG) 1.46 1.56
Goals prevented 0.24 0.24

Confirmed lineups

Leeds (3-4-2-1)
1James TraffordG
6Joe RodonD
15Jaka BijolD
5Tarik MuharemovićD
2Jayden BogleM
4Ethan AmpaduM
18Anton StachM
24James JustinM
11Brenden AaronsonF
19Noah OkaforF
9Dominic Calvert-LewinF
Brentford (4-2-3-1)
1Caoimhin KelleherG
33Michael KayodeD
20Kristoffer AjerD
22Nathan CollinsD
23Keane Lewis-PotterD
18Mamadou SangareM
27Vitaly JaneltM
19Jaidon AnthonyM
24Mikkel DamsgaardM
7Kevin SchadeM
9Igor ThiagoF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results