Smart stats. Honest predictions.
Mr Edge, the Edge11 robot mascot

Recent form

IPS LLLWL
LIV DLDDD
Last 5 league results · 20% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool
0
Ipswich Town wins
0
Draws
2
Liverpool wins
From 2 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.42 vs 1.34
Ipswich TownLiverpool
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenuePortman Road, Ipswich
Referee D. England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Ipswich Town
0 2
Liverpool
We predicted 2-1 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
38.9%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Ipswich Town 1-1 Liverpool 12.0%
Ipswich Town 1-0 Liverpool 9.0%
Ipswich Town 2-1 Liverpool 8.5%
Ipswich Town 0-1 Liverpool 8.5%
Ipswich Town 1-2 Liverpool 8.1%

In brief

Final score: Ipswich Town 0-2 Liverpool. Twelfth-placed Ipswich Town hosted thirteenth-placed Liverpool. Both sides arrived in poor form. Liverpool had the longer injury list. The model saw little between the sides. The bookmakers gave Liverpool a better chance than the model did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Ipswich Town vs Liverpool
Attack strength
1.12 / 1.12
Defence strength
0.73 / 0.90
Form factor
0.75 / 0.75
Head-to-head
0.90 / 1.10
Injury factor
0.91 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Ipswich Town win39%
Draw25%
Liverpool win36%

Odds comparison — 1x2

61
Bookmakers
61
Offering 1x2
5.8%
Overround
Ipswich Town HIGHER
Model38.9%
Market17.7%
Difference +21.2 points
Draw HIGHER
Model25.5%
Market20.6%
Difference +4.9 points
Liverpool LOWER
Model35.6%
Market61.7%
Difference -26.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

3.5
Goals line
18
Bookmakers
6.1%
Overround
Over 3.5 goalsAverage odds 2.25 LOWER
Model29.9%
Market42.0%
Difference -12.0 points
Under 3.5 goalsAverage odds 1.62 HIGHER
Model70.1%
Market58.0%
Difference +12.0 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. MatusiwaIpswichMuscle Injury
J. TaylorIpswichKnee Injury
J. PhilogeneIpswichAnkle Injury
C. BradleyLiverpoolKnee Injury
H. EkitikeLiverpoolAchilles Tendon Injury
J. GomezLiverpoolMuscle Injury
G. LeoniLiverpoolKnee Injury
F. ChiesaLiverpoolBack Injury
W. EndoLiverpoolOff the roster
C. GakpoLiverpoolMuscle Injury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results