Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

IPS WLLWL
FUL LLLDD
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 13% of points taken

Head to head

Ipswich Town vs Fulham
3
Ipswich Town wins
3
Draws
6
Fulham wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.46 vs 1.62
Ipswich TownFulham
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenuePortman Road, Ipswich
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Ipswich Town
1 2
Fulham
Model's expected scoreline · 8.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 09 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
41.5%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Ipswich Town 1-1 Fulham 10.9%
Ipswich Town 1-2 Fulham 8.8%
Ipswich Town 2-1 Fulham 7.9%
Ipswich Town 0-1 Fulham 7.4%
Ipswich Town 1-0 Fulham 6.7%

In brief

Eleventh-placed Ipswich Town host nineteenth-placed Fulham. Ipswich Town arrive in mixed form and Fulham in poor form. Ipswich Town have won one of their two home games and Fulham are still looking for a first away win. Ipswich Town have one of the league's leakiest defences. Fulham have had much the better of their past meetings. Both squads have similar injury lists. The model sees little between the sides. The model gives Fulham a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Ipswich Town vs Fulham
Attack strength
0.88 / 0.92
Defence strength
0.82 / 0.91
Head-to-head
0.93 / 1.07
Injury factor
1.0 / 1.0
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Ipswich Town win35%
Draw24%
Fulham win41%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.5%
Overround
Ipswich Town —
Model34.7%
Market35.6%
Difference -0.9 points
Draw LOWER
Model23.9%
Market27.0%
Difference -3.1 points
Fulham HIGHER
Model41.5%
Market37.5%
Difference +4.0 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
14
Bookmakers
6.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.73 HIGHER
Model59.5%
Market54.2%
Difference +5.2 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.05 LOWER
Model40.5%
Market45.8%
Difference -5.3 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
A. MatusiwaIpswichMuscle Injury
J. TaylorIpswichKnee Injury
T. CairneyFulhamKnee Injury
K. TeteFulhamConcussion

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Portman Road fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results