Smart stats. Honest predictions.

Recent form

HUL WWDDL
EVE WDDDW
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 60% of points taken

Head to head

Hull City AFC vs Everton
1
Hull City AFC wins
2
Draws
4
Everton wins
From 7 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.89 vs 1.59
Hull City AFCEverton
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueMKM Stadium, Hull
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Hull City AFC
1 1
Everton
Model's expected scoreline · 11.8% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 10 Oct, 14:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
54.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Hull City AFC 0-1 Everton 13.4%
Hull City AFC 1-1 Everton 11.8%
Hull City AFC 0-2 Everton 10.6%
Hull City AFC 1-2 Everton 9.4%
Hull City AFC 0-0 Everton 8.4%

In brief

Eighth-placed Hull City AFC host seventh-placed Everton. Hull City AFC arrive in mixed form and Everton in good form. Hull City AFC are unbeaten at home and Everton are still looking for a first away win. Everton have one of the league's tightest defences. Everton have had much the better of their past meetings. Hull City AFC have the longer injury list. The model makes Everton favourites. The model gives Everton a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Hull City AFC vs Everton
Attack strength
0.75 / 0.95
Defence strength
0.95 / 1.16
Head-to-head
0.91 / 1.09
Injury factor
0.91 / 1.09
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Hull City AFC win21%
Draw25%
Everton win54%

Odds comparison — 1x2

34
Bookmakers
34
Offering 1x2
6.4%
Overround
Hull City AFC LOWER
Model20.9%
Market26.0%
Difference -5.1 points
Draw LOWER
Model25.1%
Market28.6%
Difference -3.4 points
Everton HIGHER
Model54.0%
Market45.5%
Difference +8.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
14
Bookmakers
6.5%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.11 —
Model45.0%
Market44.4%
Difference +0.6 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.69 —
Model55.0%
Market55.6%
Difference -0.6 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. ButlandHull CityArm Injury
D. GyabiHull CityGroin Injury
C. HughesHull CityGroin Injury
E. MatazoHull CityKnee Injury
H. MoritaHull CityCalf Injury
I. AnsahHull CityBack Injury
N. MendyHull CityInjury
M. TargettHull CityAnkle Injury
C. NorgaardEvertonInjury
M. RohlEvertonInjury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at MKM Stadium fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 14:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results