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HUL LWWDD
AVL WLLDL
Last 5 league results · 53% vs 27% of points taken

Head to head

Hull City vs Aston Villa
1
Hull City wins
5
Draws
3
Aston Villa wins
From 9 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.36 vs 0.15
Hull CityAston Villa
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueMKM Stadium, Hull
Referee Michael Oliver, England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Hull City
0 0
Aston Villa
We predicted 1-0 WRONG RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
69.2%
High
ScorelineProbability
Hull City 1-0 Aston Villa 30.0%
Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa 22.0%
Hull City 2-0 Aston Villa 20.4%
Hull City 3-0 Aston Villa 9.2%
Hull City 1-1 Aston Villa 4.6%

In brief

Final score: Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa. Third-placed Hull City hosted nineteenth-placed Aston Villa. Hull City arrived in mixed form and Aston Villa in poor form. Hull City were unbeaten at home and Aston Villa were still looking for a first away win. Hull City had one of the league's tightest defences; Aston Villa were one of the league's lowest-scoring sides. Aston Villa had much the better of their earlier meetings. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Hull City clear favourites and expected a tight, low-scoring game.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Hull City vs Aston Villa
Attack strength
0.92 / 0.34
Defence strength
2.06 / 0.83
Form factor
1.07 / 0.75
Head-to-head
0.97 / 1.03
Injury factor
0.85 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Hull City win69%
Draw27%
Aston Villa win4%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
J. ButlandHull CityArm Injury
D. GyabiHull CityGroin Injury
C. HughesHull CityGroin Injury
E. MatazoHull CityKnee Injury
H. MoritaHull CityCalf Injury
O. ZambranoHull CityHamstring Injury
I. AnsahHull CityBack Injury
M. CrooksHull CityMuscle Injury
P. McNairHull CityInjury
B. MadjoAston VillaAnkle Injury
J. ManzambiAston VillaKnee Injury
A. OnanaAston VillaKnee Injury
Joao GomesAston VillaRed Card
M. CashAston VillaMuscle Injury
L. GoretzkaAston VillaKnee Injury
M. CisseAston VillaOff the roster
T. Harwood-BellisAston VillaOff the roster

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Hull City Aston Villa
Full-time score00
Model predicted10
WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatHull City Aston Villa
Shots on goal 4 1
Shots off goal 7 7
Total shots 11 13
Blocked shots 0 5
Shots inside box 4 10
Shots outside box 7 3
Fouls 10 5
Corner kicks 3 4
Offsides 2 2
Ball possession 26% 74%
Yellow cards 2 0
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 1 4
Total passes 229 694
Passes accurate 167 624
Pass accuracy 73% 90%
Expected goals (xG) 0.57 1.93
Goals prevented 0.17 0.17

Confirmed lineups

Hull City (5-4-1)
19K. TzolakisG
2L. CoyleD
6S. AjayiD
15J. EganD
32N. MendyD
3R. GilesD
10M. BelloumiM
27R. SlaterM
29L. Gourna-DouathM
21E. StroudM
9O. McBurnieF
Aston Villa (4-2-3-1)
1Z. SuzukiG
2M. CashD
3V. LindelofD
5T. MingsD
22I. MaatsenD
8B. KamaraM
6R. BarkleyM
7J. McGinnM
10E. BuendiaM
53G. HemmingsM
11N. JacksonF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results