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Recent form

FUL WLLLD
MUN WLWDL
Last 5 league results · 27% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Fulham vs Man United
1
Fulham wins
4
Draws
15
Man United wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

0.84 vs 1.63
FulhamMan United
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueCraven Cottage, London
Referee Peter Bankes
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Fulham
1 1
Man United
We predicted 1-1 EXACT SCORE
LOCKED 18h 34m before kickoff · 19 Sep 2026, 21:55 BST · Premier League record #4 83f679031f
Outcome certainty
56.0%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Fulham 0-1 Man United 13.7%
Fulham 1-1 Man United 11.6%
Fulham 0-2 Man United 11.2%
Fulham 1-2 Man United 9.4%
Fulham 0-0 Man United 8.4%

In brief

Final score: Fulham 1-1 Man United. Bottom side Fulham hosted thirteenth-placed Man United. Fulham arrived in poor form and Man United in mixed form. Fulham had lost every home game this season and Man United were still looking for a first away win. Man United had much the better of their earlier meetings. Man United had the longer injury list. The model made Man United favourites. The model gave Man United a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Fulham vs Man United
Attack strength
0.77 / 1.19
Defence strength
0.84 / 0.84
Form factor
0.75 / 0.93
Head-to-head
0.89 / 1.11
Injury factor
0.91 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Fulham win19%
Draw25%
Man United win56%

Odds comparison — 1x2

42
Bookmakers
42
Offering 1x2
5.3%
Overround
Fulham LOWER
Model19.4%
Market27.6%
Difference -8.3 points
Draw —
Model24.7%
Market25.3%
Difference -0.6 points
Man United HIGHER
Model56.0%
Market47.1%
Difference +8.9 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

3.5
Goals line
9
Bookmakers
7.0%
Overround
Over 3.5 goalsAverage odds 2.31 LOWER
Model23.6%
Market40.5%
Difference -16.8 points
Under 3.5 goalsAverage odds 1.57 HIGHER
Model76.4%
Market59.5%
Difference +16.8 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. CairneyFulhamKnee Injury
K. TeteFulhamConcussion
R. SessegnonFulhamGroin Injury
T. HeatonManchester UnitedInjury
M. UgarteManchester UnitedKnee Injury
M. de LigtManchester UnitedBack Injury
C. BalebaManchester UnitedAnkle Injury
A. DialloManchester UnitedInjury
L. ShawManchester UnitedInjury
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results