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Recent form

FUL LLDDL
HUL WDDLD
Last 5 league results · 13% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Fulham vs Hull City
6
Fulham wins
2
Draws
4
Hull City wins
From 12 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.88 vs 1.20
FulhamHull City
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/h2h/injuries. From kickoff, Match day below charts these against the real goals.

Fixture details

VenueCraven Cottage, London
Referee TBC
StatusNot Started
Referees are typically only confirmed a few days before kickoff.
Prediction
Predicted score
Our Poisson model rates each team's attack and defence mostly on expected goals, the quality of the chances it makes and allows (blended with last season's ratings early on), then weighs head-to-head history and injuries to calculate the most likely outcome.
Fulham
1 1
Hull City
Model's most likely score · 10.4% probability of this exact score
PROVISIONAL This prediction locks on 16 Oct, 15:00 BST, 24 hours before kickoff, using the latest data.
Outcome certainty
53.2%
Medium
ScorelineProbability
Fulham 1-1 Hull City 10.4%
Fulham 2-1 Hull City 9.7%
Fulham 1-0 Hull City 8.7%
Fulham 2-0 Hull City 8.1%
Fulham 1-2 Hull City 6.2%

In brief

Bottom side Fulham host eighth-placed Hull City. Fulham arrive in poor form and Hull City in mixed form. Fulham are still looking for a first home win and Hull City have won one of their three away games. Past meetings between the two have been fairly even. Hull City have the longer injury list. The model makes Fulham favourites. The model gives Hull City a better chance than the bookmakers do.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Fulham vs Hull City
Attack strength
1.07 / 0.82
Defence strength
0.89 / 0.98
Head-to-head
0.99 / 1.01
Injury factor
1.06 / 0.94
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Fulham win53%
Draw23%
Hull City win24%

Odds comparison — 1x2

10
Bookmakers
10
Offering 1x2
6.0%
Overround
Fulham LOWER
Model53.2%
Market56.3%
Difference -3.1 points
Draw —
Model22.5%
Market24.0%
Difference -1.4 points
Hull City HIGHER
Model24.2%
Market19.7%
Difference +4.5 points
Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5
Goals line
7
Bookmakers
5.2%
Overround
Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.73 HIGHER
Model59.3%
Market54.8%
Difference +4.5 points
Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.1 LOWER
Model40.7%
Market45.2%
Difference -4.5 points

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
T. CairneyFulhamKnee Injury
A. RobinsonFulhamAnkle Injury
J. ButlandHull CityArm Injury
D. GyabiHull CityGroin Injury
C. HughesHull CityGroin Injury
E. MatazoHull CityKnee Injury
I. AnsahHull CityBack Injury
M. TargettHull CityAnkle Injury

Weather at kickoff

UP TO 3 DAYS BEFORE KICKOFF

The forecast at Craven Cottage fills in once the match is within 3 days.

Match day

Confirmed lineups

ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE KICKOFF

Both starting XIs and formations.

Expected v real goals

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

The model's expected goals against the real goals, minute by minute.

Live match stats

FROM KICKOFF, 15:00 BST

Shots, possession, corners and cards as the game goes on.

Result

AT FULL TIME

The final score against our locked prediction.

See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results