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Recent form

EVE LWDDD
MUN WLWDL
Last 5 league results · 40% vs 47% of points taken

Head to head

Everton vs Man United
3
Everton wins
7
Draws
10
Man United wins
From 20 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.10 vs 0.90
EvertonMan United
The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

VenueHill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Referee John Brooks, England
StatusFull time
Result
Full time
The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.
Everton
2 2
Man United
We predicted 1-1 CORRECT RESULT
NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.
Outcome certainty
39.9%
Low
ScorelineProbability
Everton 1-0 Man United 14.9%
Everton 0-0 Man United 13.5%
Everton 1-1 Man United 13.4%
Everton 0-1 Man United 12.2%
Everton 2-0 Man United 8.2%

In brief

Final score: Everton 2-2 Man United. Eighth-placed Everton hosted thirteenth-placed Man United. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Everton were unbeaten at home and Man United were still looking for a first away win. Man United had much the better of their earlier meetings. Man United had the longer injury list. The model saw little between the sides and expected a tight, low-scoring game.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season
Everton vs Man United
Attack strength
0.92 / 1.20
Defence strength
1.59 / 0.83
Form factor
0.80 / 0.93
Head-to-head
0.92 / 1.08
Injury factor
0.97 / 0.85
No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Everton win40%
Draw31%
Man United win29%

Odds comparison

NOT YET AVAILABLE
Bookmakers haven't posted prices for this match yet — they usually appear about a week before kickoff. The model prediction above isn't affected; check back closer to kickoff for the market comparison.

Injuries

PlayerTeamReason
C. NorgaardEvertonInjury
T. HeatonManchester UnitedInjury
M. UgarteManchester UnitedKnee Injury
M. de LigtManchester UnitedBack Injury
C. BalebaManchester UnitedAnkle Injury
A. DialloManchester UnitedInjury
L. ShawManchester UnitedInjury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score
Everton Man United
Full-time score22
Model predicted11
CORRECT RESULT

Expected v real goals

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 0 15 30 45 60 75 90 Minute Everton goal, 83'Everton goal, 90' Man United goal, 46'Man United goal, 88'
Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

StatEverton Manchester United
Shots on goal 6 3
Shots off goal 5 5
Total shots 18 14
Blocked shots 7 6
Shots inside box 14 6
Shots outside box 4 8
Fouls 7 11
Corner kicks 4 3
Offsides 3 1
Ball possession 45% 55%
Yellow cards 3 3
Red cards - -
Goalkeeper saves 1 4
Total passes 418 527
Passes accurate 361 458
Pass accuracy 86% 87%
Expected goals (xG) 1.01 0.69
Goals prevented -0.91 -0.91

Confirmed lineups

Everton (4-2-3-1)
1J. PickfordG
34M. RohlD
6J. TarkowskiD
4J. BranthwaiteD
16V. MykolenkoD
45H. ArmstrongM
37J. GarnerM
22B. JohnsonM
8K. Dewsbury-HallM
19T. GeorgeM
11T. BarryF
Manchester United (4-2-3-1)
1S. LammensG
2D. DalotD
5H. MaguireD
6L. MartinezD
23L. ShawD
37K. MainooM
18Y. TielemansM
19B. MbeumoM
8B. FernandesM
9M. RashfordM
10M. CunhaF
See how we've actually done
Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.
See the results