Everton vs Ipswich Town prediction

Recent form

EVE LWDDD

IPS LWLLW

Last 5 league results · 40% vs 40% of points taken

Head to head

Everton vs

Ipswich Town

Everton wins

Draws

Ipswich Town wins

From 2 meetings on record

Expected goals (xG)

1.70 vs 0.73

EvertonIpswich Town

The model's expected goals, adjusted for attack/defence/form/h2h/injuries.

Fixture details

Venue	Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool
Referee	Stuart Attwell
Status	Full time

Result

Full time

The final score, with the prediction we made before kickoff underneath.

Everton

1 0

Ipswich Town

We predicted 1-1 WRONG RESULT

NOT LOCKED Made before lock records existed, so there's no verifiable pre-kickoff timestamp.

Outcome certainty

60.6%

High

Scoreline	Probability
Everton 1-0 Ipswich Town	14.9%
Everton 2-0 Ipswich Town	12.7%
Everton 1-1 Ipswich Town	10.9%
Everton 2-1 Ipswich Town	9.3%
Everton 0-0 Ipswich Town	8.8%

In brief

Final score: Everton 1-0 Ipswich Town. Eighth-placed Everton hosted ninth-placed Ipswich Town. Both sides arrived in mixed form. Everton were unbeaten at home and Ipswich Town had won one of their two away games. Ipswich Town had one of the league's leakiest defences. Both squads had similar injury lists. The model made Everton favourites. The model gave Everton a better chance than the bookmakers did.

Written automatically from our statistics, so it updates when they do. Not betting advice.

Key factors in prediction

Statistics baseline: 2026 season

Everton vs

Ipswich Town

Attack strength

0.92 / 1.20

Defence strength

1.59 / 0.61

Form factor

0.80 / 0.80

Head-to-head

1.04 / 0.96

Injury factor

0.97 / 0.91

No units: every number compares a team with an average Premier League side, which scores 1.00. Attack is a team's scoring rate at home or away (built from goals and expected goals) against the league average, so 1.16 means 16% more than average. Defence is the same for goals conceded, turned round so higher is better. Head-to-head and injuries nudge each side's expected goals: 1.15 adds 15%, 0.85 takes 15% off, 1.00 changes nothing.

Win probability

Everton win61%

Draw24%

Ipswich Town win16%

Odds comparison — 1x2

Bookmakers

Offering 1x2

6.1%

Overround

Everton HIGHER

Model60.6%

Market53.5%

Difference +7.1 points

Draw —

Model23.6%

Market24.9%

Difference -1.3 points

Ipswich Town LOWER

Model15.8%

Market21.6%

Difference -5.8 points

Where we differ from the bookmakers, they have usually been right: in our backtests, backing the outcomes our model rated higher lost money. Treat a difference as something to look into, not a bet.

Odds comparison — total goals

2.5

Goals line

Bookmakers

5.7%

Overround

Over 2.5 goalsAverage odds 1.76 LOWER

Model43.8%

Market53.8%

Difference -10.0 points

Under 2.5 goalsAverage odds 2.05 HIGHER

Model56.1%

Market46.2%

Difference +10.0 points

Injuries

Player	Team	Reason
C. Norgaard	Everton	Injury
A. Matusiwa	Ipswich	Muscle Injury
J. Taylor	Ipswich	Knee Injury
J. Philogene	Ipswich	Ankle Injury

Match day

Result

Full time · prediction checked against the final score

	Everton	Ipswich Town
Full-time score	1	0
Model predicted	1	1

WRONG RESULT

Expected v real goals

Lines are the model's expected goals building up the way Premier League goals arrived last season (more late in each half). Dots are the real goals.

Live match stats

Stat	Everton	Ipswich
Passes accurate	430	386
Shots inside box	13	9
Shots outside box	8	4
Blocked shots	8	4
Free kicks	11	6
Shots on goal	2	4
Goalkeeper saves	4	1
Shots off goal	11	5
Offsides	1	0
Total passes	513	472
Total shots	21	13
Yellow cards	2	1
Corner kicks	4	4
Red cards	0	1
Fouls	6	12
Ball possession	52%	48%

Confirmed lineups

Everton (4-2-3-1)

1	J. Pickford	G
2	A. Maitland-Niles	D
6	J. Tarkowski	D
4	J. Branthwaite	D
16	V. Mykolenko	D
45	H. Armstrong	M
37	J. Garner	M
22	B. Johnson	M
8	K. Dewsbury-Hall	M
10	J. Grealish	M
11	T. Barry	F

Ipswich (4-2-3-1)

28	C. Walton	G
42	A. Ouattara	D
6	I. Diop	D
26	D. O'Shea	D
3	L. Davis	D
23	S. Lukić	M
25	E. Palacios	M
7	A. Fatawu	M
10	J. Enciso	M
47	J. Clarke	M
19	Emersonn	F

See how we've actually done

Every prediction is locked before kickoff and checked against the final score, good weeks and bad.

See the results